Wars, extreme weather events top global risks: Davos study

Participants check their messages during the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on January 23, 2020. The World Economic Forum will announce on January 14, 2025 the program of its 2025 meeting in Davos from January 20 to 24. (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI / AFP)

Brussels, Belgium–Armed conflict is the biggest risk this year, a World Economic Forum survey warned on Wednesday, as political divisions and fragmentation deepen worldwide.

Published ahead of next week’s annual schmoozefest of business and political elites in the Swiss Alpine resort of Davos, the survey’s respondents also warned of other threats including extreme weather events, economic tensions and disinformation.

Nearly a quarter of the over 900 experts surveyed identified conflict as the greatest risk in WEF’s Global Risks Report 2025.

“We have a record number of conflicts, unfortunately, around the world,” said Mirek Dusek, WEF managing director, pointing to the “humanitarian emergencies and the suffering that comes with it.”

Political and business leaders’ concerns over raging conflicts have proliferated after war only ranked as the fifth biggest global risk in 2024.

This year’s forum begins on Monday, the same day as the inauguration ceremony for incoming US president Donald Trump in Washington.

Trump is expected to speak by video link during the forum on January 23 and will figure highly in talks over what risks his more protectionist approach to trade may bring for the global economy.

(From L) World Economic Forum founder and chairman Klaus Schwab meets WEF managing director Mirek Dusek, WEF managing director Neo Gim Huay, WEF president and CEO Borge Brende and WEF head of media Yann Zopf speaks after a press conference to present the upcoming WEF annual meeting held in Davos, in Geneva, on January 14, 2025. The US president-elect will speak online to the annual meeting of the global political and business elite in Davos next week, days after taking office, the World Economic Forum said on January 14. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP)

Trade fears are also front and center of business executives’ minds.

“There is widespread consensus that we have moved into a more competitive, geostrategic, geoeconomic environment,” Dusek said during a virtual press conference.

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“Harmful new policy interventions” rose from 600 in 2017 to more than 3,000 per year in 2022″, said Carolina Klint, of consultancy Marsh McLennan, citing figures from Global Trade Alert, an organization which assesses commerce policies.

“I don’t even want to guess where we’ll end up in 2025,” said Klint, whose consulting firm which helped produce the survey with WEF.

Extreme weather topped the list of risks over a 10-year period and was named the second biggest immediate danger, just as major fires have devastated swathes of Los Angeles this month.

The last two years also saw average global temperatures exceed a critical warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time, Europe’s climate monitor said last week.