The Philippines’ ‘Biden moment’
As Donald Trump begins his second four-year term today, the world braces itself for what many fear will be a turbulent chapter in global politics. The United States, and indeed the rest of the world, are preparing for potential upheavals in areas such as the economy, international alliances, technology, social media, and geopolitics. Most countries have put real analysis into what the new Trump presidency might mean for their countries. The Philippines, it seems, is on a “bahala na” posture, failing to divine the signals that a new Trump presidency might augur for the Philippines.
From a macro perspective, the Trump presidency could give this warning to the Philippines—it could happen to you too. The next Philippine presidential election is on May 2028, more than three years from now. The May 2025 midterm election is the critical runway toward that critical fork in the road. One might say, the Philippines is in its “Biden moment.” It is the uneasy calm before the storm. The storm can be anything from the return of the Dutertes through Sara or a more pugnacious and licentious sibling presidency of the Tulfo brothers. If there was a conjugal dictatorship during the Marcos martial law period, we could be entering a new pinnacle dynastic form—a sibling dictatorship.
Over the past week, two “monster” intimidating forces have been unleashed against the Marcos administration. The first one was the “monster” coast guard ship of the Chinese Communist Party near Zambales. The other one was the “monster” rally of the Iglesia ni Cristo at Luneta. These two forces may seem unrelated, but they are actions that could aid the future presidency of Sara Duterte.
What’s in it for the Communist Party of China? If there is anything that can soften the Marcos hard-line against China’s continuing and escalating aggression against the Philippines in its own exclusive economic zone, it is the return of the Dutertes, who would welcome the CCP’s embrace.
What’s in it for the Iglesia ni Cristo? This political force is akin to Elon Musk betting big on a change in administration and thus reaping the rewards of shifting politics toward Sara Duterte’s side. This could translate into the installation of a couple of dozens of Marcoletas in various political and appointive sensitive positions in government. The rally was a sophisticated pitch, talking peace while deviously disarming the constitutional impeachment process against Sara Duterte.
The despair of the Filipino masses that catapulted Rodrigo Duterte as the “punishment” for this aberrant political system has not dissipated, even though, in his folksy way, Duterte pushed the limits of impunity almost to the point of tearing the fabric of Filipino society. Under the Marcos administration, almost two of three Filipinos perceive themselves to be poor. The mass frustration against political dynasties, profligacy with the people’s money, and callous disregard for the flimsiness of the ordinary people’s survival trajectories continues. The masses are still in this inchoate mode of revenge against the political order that, in a knee-jerk fashion, makes them unabashedly voice their preferences for the Lito Lapids, Bong Revillas, Robinhood Padillas, and Bato dela Rosas, who vaguely represent the society’s vigilante wrath against crime and poverty.
If Biden was too old for reelection, President Marcos is barred by the Constitution from running for reelection, and no successors are in view. His sister Imee Marcos is sleeping with the enemy while his son Sandro is far from ready. Cousin Martin Romualdez will not grow the kind of charisma that catapults mere Speakers of the House of Representatives to the presidency. No amount of political machinery will make that happen.
Part of the Biden moment for the Philippines is the frivolous expectation that there will be a Kamala Harris who will emerge as an alternative unifying figure in the run-up to the May 2028 elections. But Harris’ quest was an echo of Leni Robredo‘s campaign, with similar dampening consequences.
This emergence of a rallying figure can happen like when P-Noy Aquino quickly became the people’s choice as president when Cory Aquino passed away. But these lighting-in-a-bottle situations are rare. The closest possibility is an unsettling one—if Rodrigo Duterte were to pass away right before the May 2028 elections, that could instantaneously catapult Sara Duterte to the presidency. Filipinos might end up all praying that Rodrigo Duterte lives as long as Juan Ponce Enrile in aid of national salvation.
As Trump’s second term reshapes the world, the Philippines must heed the lessons from US politics with urgency. We have little time to create a surge of vigilance, political reform, and true leadership to navigate our own Biden moment.
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doyromero@gmail.com
