External view of the VP’s impeachment
The political noise in the country is expected to go up by several decibels in the coming days.
Today is the start of the official campaign period for candidates to the Senate and the party list system, while that for the House of Representatives and local government units would begin on March 28.
But many of the candidates have already started their campaign ahead of the authorized campaign period through social media and other less overt processes that had proven their worth in past elections.
This political exercise happens every three years and, except for a few surprises, it is expected to be dominated once more by political dynasties.
The otherwise staid political cauldron had been stirred with the surprise action of a supermajority of the House impeaching Vice President Sara Duterte from her office for culpable violation of the Constitution.
That caught her allies in the House flatfooted and did not give them a chance to question at the committee level the form and substance of the complaint that formed the basis of the impeachment.
It also came as a surprise in light of the rally held by members of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) that called for a halt on reported plans by some House members to impeach her, although the call was disguised as a move in support of the President’s earlier statement that he was not in favor of her impeachment because it would distract Congress from its legislative work.
The overwhelming vote was a resounding message to the INC that the House would not allow itself to be held hostage by the INC’s much vaunted alleged ability to influence the results of elections through its control over the voting choices of its members.
The ball is now in the court of the Senate. Whether or not it would return from its adjournment last week to hold a special session at its own initiative or in compliance with a call for President Marcos to commence the impeachment trial is a big question mark.
When the President was asked during a media conference the possible effects of the impeachment on the economy, he said he did not think it would derail the economic programs that the government had already put in place.
The President may have put up a brave face over the impeachment issue, but because its result may affect his political and economic plans, it is reasonable to assume that he will monitor it closely.
For Filipino business executives, the impending impeachment trial may not be a big deal or something that would make them lose sleep.
The country had already gone through two very contentious impeachment trials, i.e., then president Joseph Estrada and former chief justice Renato Corona, and their outcome hardly made a blip in the economy.
In other words, the impeachment trial would simply be a “been there, done that” case that, aside from its daily media coverage, would not disrupt the regular course of business and commerce in the country.
But not so for foreign investors who are already in the country or those who may be considering the idea of bringing their capital here for commercial purposes. For them, the trial (and worse, a conviction verdict) may result in political instability that could adversely affect their investments.
Note that in terms of political influence, the Vice President is no pushover because her father still has a strong following in the Visayas and Mindanao that could be harnessed against the present administration.
That corps of followers would be critical in the election of the senatorial candidates in the coming May elections. If the trial is held after that and some of the candidates supported by former president Rodrigo Duterte win, securing a guilty verdict would not be a walk in the park.
If the result of the trial goes the Vice President’s way, she and her political allies in the Senate would be a thorn on the side of the administration for the next three years, a development that could derail the implementation of some of the government’s economic development programs.
