After Duterte: A new opposition movement?
By all indications, the decisive moment is before us. During a trip to The Hague last year, a senior statesman quietly confirmed to me a major development: “They are communicating with the Philippine government,” referring to the International Criminal Court (ICC). The matter was so sensitive that the source ensured even his/her lieutenant was not within hearing distance. The revelation came in almost whispers and a few meaningful glances against the backdrop of lounge music in a bohemian-style café.
At the time, the ICC had already issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, barely a year into his brutal invasion of Ukraine, and was seriously mulling filing similar charges against top Israeli leaders amid the massive bombardment of besieged civilians in Gaza. The ICC is extremely secretive about its cases, especially since it is increasingly pursuing powerful leaders, including incumbents in nuclear-powered states. Plus, brazen threats from top United States officials, who have shown little respect for international legal bodies. Getting advance confirmation about impending major decisions is almost impossible.
A complicating factor, meanwhile, has been the wishy-washy position of the Marcos administration, which steadily went from a categorical ”non-cooperation” stance to publicly admitting that it couldn’t ignore international law altogether. This only delayed the ICC’s decision to issue warrants of arrest.
When I first heard that former president Rodrigo Duterte was in Hong Kong and that his consigliere Harry Roque was spotted in nearby Macao, I thought of how Bashar al-Assad perfunctorily left his country as well as close relatives for exile in Moscow ahead of the total collapse of his decades-old regime. Was Duterte similarly exploring possible exile with his overseas patrons? Did his Chinese patrons leak the information to him?
Reports suggest the ICC warrant of arrest has been issued and that a 7,000-strong police force has been prepared to cooperate with the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol). Shortly after filing criminal raps against the former president and a Duterte-aligned troll, Philippine National Police Gen. Nicolas Torre, current director of the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group, told me that he is more than ready to execute any high-profile arrest. Malacañang, meanwhile, left little to the imagination when it made clear that “the government is prepared for any eventuality” and that it’s “obliged to follow” if Interpol seeks any “necessary assistance.”
In a speech before followers in Hong Kong, Duterte confirmed that he heard about his possible arrest under the aegis of the ICC. Is this the “cut off the head of the snake” political moment? Whether the former president remains in de facto exile or returns home for an ultimate showdown, the whole Duterte dynasty is confronting an existential crisis. Impeachment complaints filed against his daughter and criminal cases against his prodigal sons could follow. Plus, their loosening grip on Davao amid the resurgence of the Nograleses. Key allies, meanwhile, could end up like rats jumping off a sinking ship.
The impending existential crisis for the country’s most notorious political dynasty, however, doesn’t guarantee a progressive future for the country.
Filipino-American philanthropist Loida Nicolas-Lewis recently admitted that she was “almost giving up on the Philippines” due to its “dismal” state of politics. I truly understand her frustration and pain. We can’t afford, however, to give up on our country, since the fate of tens of millions of Filipinos—with little political agency and struggling to survive from day-to-day—is at stake.
Fortunately, there is now a historic opportunity not only to do a proper postmortem on the failures of the liberal opposition in the past three elections but to also birth a fresh, new, and more energetic progressive movement ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. The Marcos-Duterte feud has ended up weakening both sides, paving the way for a new “third force” like never before.
Confronting political sclerosis, a 30-something Emmanuel Macron ran an insurgent campaign in 2017 that not only won him the presidency but also catapulted countless young academics and activists to the Parliament under the then one-year-old “En Marche” party. Years later, a similar-sounding “Move Forward Party” won the greatest share of votes in Thailand’s parliamentary elections. In Chile, they elected a millennial progressive as president. Perhaps, it is also time for Asia’s oldest democracy to build its own young and dynamic movement for transformative change.
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rheydarian@inquirer.com.ph
