When ‘net zero’ is within reach
The concerted effort to combat climate change may have experienced a setback last year due to a rise in global electricity demand caused by heat waves. But there’s good news too: global energy demand saw oil drop below 30 percent for the first time, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“Oil demand grew more slowly, rising by 0.8 percent in 2024. Oil’s share of total energy demand fell below 30 percent for the first time ever, 50 years after it peaked at 46 percent,” the IEA disclosed in its Global Energy Review released on Monday, March 24. The IEA is an independent intergovernmental organization that provides data and policy recommendations about the global energy sector. (https://tinyurl.com/2nzb7z7r)
Among the key factors that contributed to a slowdown in oil demand last year was the increased sale of electric vehicles, which rose by over 25 percent. One out of five cars sold globally are electric models. “This contributed considerably to the decline in oil demand for road transport, which offset a significant proportion of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals,” the IEA said.
Reporting on the IEA review the same day, the New York Times noted that renewables and nuclear energy were growing. “About 80 percent of new electricity generation came from renewables and nuclear last year, and renewables accounted for almost a third of total electricity generation,” The Times said. (“The Vicious Cycle of Extreme Heat Leading to More Fossil Fuel Use,” 3/24/25, https://tinyurl.com/mtbhuh42)
The Times reported that solar installations led the charge, with solar and wind electricity overtaking coal for the first time in the United States. It said that global carbon emissions “would have been 7 percent higher last year without clean technologies like solar, wind, nuclear, electric cars, and heat pumps.”
It remains to be seen what the impact of the US decision to retreat from climate commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement will be. The climate deal requires a 43-percent cut in global emissions by 2030 to keep global warming below the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold temperature goal, according to the Times.
Decoupling
“From slowing global oil demand growth and rising deployment of electric cars to the rapidly expanding role of electricity and the increasing decoupling of emissions from economic growth, many of the key trends the IEA has identified ahead of the curve are showing up clearly in the data for 2024,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
What this means is that the growth rate of the global economy is outpacing the growth rate of carbon emissions, a development that is crucial for achieving net zero emissions. Recall that the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has correlated with the growth rate of advanced economies, an argument that some developing countries are adamantly using to refuse to ditch fossil fuels.
“The continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies limited the annual rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which are increasingly decoupling from economic growth,” according to the report.
The same IEA report noted that record temperatures significantly contributed to the annual 0.8 percent increase in global CO2 emissions. But since 2019, the deployment of solar photovoltaic, wind, nuclear, electric cars, and heat pumps has now prevented 2.6 billion tons of CO2 annually, which is equivalent to 7 percent of global emissions, it said.
The report also revealed that CO2 emissions in advanced nations decreased by 1.1 percent to 10.9 billion tons in 2024, a level that hasn’t been seen in 50 years, although the cumulative GDP of these countries is now three times as significant.
Emerging and developing economies, except for China, were the primary contributors to the growth of emissions in 2024. China’s population emissions are now 16 percent above those of advanced economies and almost twice the global average, the IEA said.
Biofuels
In addition to promoting renewable energy, the Department of Energy (DOE) has mandated a 3 percent coco methyl ester blend in all diesel fuel sold nationwide. The directive is part of a larger effort to increase the biofuels blend since Oct. 1, 2024, and gradually increase the percentage to 4 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026. (see “Cleaner air, cooler planet with biofuels,” 5/30/24)
The increased use of biofuels can lead to the gradual decarbonization of our transportation sector. But to limit global warming, net zero (or carbon neutrality) requires that all emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases be counterbalanced by reducing fossil fuel use in equal amounts.
The goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is a daunting task that requires cooperation from both the government and private sector. Only by investing massive amounts in “zero-carbon” renewable sources, including wind, solar, biomass, hydropower, and geothermal, can the country gradually wean itself off its high dependence on coal, oil, and natural gas.
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For comments: mubac@inquirer.com.ph
