Three factors will decide the elections
Every election, we fantasize that the best, qualified, and most trustworthy candidates will win. This close to the elections on Monday, however, it’s clear that qualifications and trustworthiness will not be the deciding elements of winnability. Instead, three key factors will decide the results of the forthcoming elections.
First, on the national level, the winning senatorial candidates will be decided by their sheer, plain, and utter popularity. Qualifications and trustworthiness will play almost absolutely no role. An overwhelming majority of those who will win will completely lack the credentials and be bereft of trustworthiness. This is true not only for the new senators but also for the reelected ones.
Second, on the local and congressional levels (governors, congresspersons, and mayors), for those who will win, qualifications and trustworthiness will similarly be irrelevant. The winning local and congressional candidates will be decided by vote-buying. In fact, the local and congressional elections on May 12, threaten to go down as the most corrupt political exercise in our nation’s history. Vote-buying is so open, rampant, and widespread all over the country.
Every incumbent government gets the blame for how corrupt an election held under its watch is, and the Marcos administration is no exception. In fact, the ruling government opened the floodgates for voter corruption because it has not only continued but even hugely expanded—three ayuda programs are distributed by politicians as instruments of voter patronage.
The three aid assistance programs of the government that have been abused for the forthcoming elections are the P26 billion Ayuda para sa Kapos ang Kita Program (Akap), the P45 billion Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situation (AICS), and the P18 billion Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers Program (Tupad). That’s a total of P89 billion in slush funds placed at the disposal of incumbent congresspersons in aid of their own reelection and the election of their chosen gubernatorial and mayoral candidates. On paper, the Akap and AICS programs are administered and distributed by the Department of Social Welfare and Development, while the Tupad program is administered by the Department of Labor and Employment. The reality on the ground, however, is that these three aid programs are distributed upon orders, and in the presence of congresspersons who act as though the cash aids are given out of their own magnanimity and come from their own pockets.
In addition to Akap, AICS, and Tupad, incumbent local and congressional candidates accumulate kickbacks from their pork barrel funds, all of which are at their disposal for vote-buying machinations. As a result, nonincumbent candidates are also prompted to engage in vote-buying schemes. What’s happening, therefore, is that the private citizen candidates who have the gumption to go against incumbents are businesspersons who have the funds to engage in a vote-buying war, and who see government posts up for grabs as business opportunities that can yield a bonanza of riches.
But before I leave the issue of vote-buying, let me take a poison pill to dissuade people with wrong motives from misusing this criticism against the ruling Marcos administration. The former Duterte regime is responsible for a far more serious form of “corruption” and depravity. The Duterte administration corrupted the minds of millions of our citizens to justify and make acceptable the mass murder of 30,000 Filipinos, the illegal imprisonment of almost half a million of our people and the torture, rape, and other forms of inhumane acts committed against hapless citizens. The loss of so many fathers, mothers, and sons and daughters is on a different level of evil and can never be quantified in monetary terms.
The third key factor that will uniformly affect national, local, and congressional candidates is an element that’s unique to 2025. This factor is the dynasty war between the Marcoses and the Dutertes. Huge numbers of voters will block-vote for candidates allied with the dynasty to which they have pledged loyalty. Again, the lack of qualifications and the gnawing absence of trustworthiness are nonfactors for these voters.
There will be exceptions to the three key factors of popularity, vote-buying, and dynasty war. A few outstanding candidates will surmount these key factors, and they will manage to win because they are the best qualified and most trustworthy. A realistic aim for fellow daydreamers is to ensure the election of these few good women and men. They can become pivotal forces who will either tilt the balance of power between the warring dynasties or become fiscalizers of anomalies and abuses. Finally, they can become reminders and shining examples of what qualifications and trustworthiness can accomplish for our people.
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