Succession: Who should Marcos support?
The great Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoyevsky warned a century-and-a-half earlier: “In turbulent times of upheaval or transition, low characters always come to the front everywhere.” We are indeed facing a new global disorder, as even flagship democracies succumb to nativist-populist impulses. And in the case of the Philippines, things are certainly bound to get worse—way worse—if the Dutertes crawl their way back to Malacañang. Countless leaders, including both the incumbent and his family as well as leading progressive figures, will certainly face a “bloodbath” should Vice President Sara Duterte pull off a populist comeback a la Trump. Facing an existential threat and intent on preserving his reformist-technocratic legacy, who should President Marcos support in the 2028 elections?
Allow me, dear readers, to put things into perspective. Over the past decade, I have personally grappled with the inscrutable inanities of Dutertismo—namely, the crass, unapologetic, and authoritarian-populist brand of politics that the former president bequeathed to his even more unhinged and incompetent coterie of potential heirs. Aside from the almost de rigueur death threats and avalanche of ad hominem attacks online, I now have to deal with arguably the third case of “legal harassment” orchestrated by a notorious cabal of Duterte-aligned grifters.
First came the bizarre Land Transport Office case in 2019, when some Duterte fanatics in the government maliciously portrayed a picture of mine with our family dog (Picasso) as a case of “reckless driving,” even if anyone with a functioning gray matter would notice that the car was safely parked. Then came the even more surreal case when I was alerted by colleagues at the University of the Philippines about yet another potential case of legal harassment—this time by a disgruntled former professor who, quite ominously, was about to be appointed to a top national security position. In both cases, serious-minded bureaucrats rightly nipped the Duterte-style dirty antics in the bud.
As if I hadn’t witnessed enough inanities, last month, a gallery of rogues accused me of ”indirect contempt” against the highest court, even if I have repeatedly pushed back against public attacks on individual esteemed justices, directly reached out to the Supreme Court for an interview, and, crucially, constantly provided academic and journalistic context for all my interventions on Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial ruling by our highest court. The lesson is clear: we are dealing with anti-democratic, if not pro-fascist forces, who have no qualms with weaponizing the law, and worse.
Underestimating the Dutertes is perilously foolhardy, but the ever-hubristic dynasty has alienated sufficient sections of both the political establishment as well as large portions of the populace to potentially trigger a “popular front” alliance ahead of the 2028 elections. In theory, Sen. Raffy Tulfo seems like a natural top contender, but does he have the incentive, organizational machine, and risk appetite to go all the way against the Duterte machine? As for former vice president Leni Robredo, she has neither expressed strong views on VP Sara’s impeachment issue and International Criminal Court arrest of the former president, nor has she signaled a potential run for the highest office after serving only a single term as mayor of her beloved hometown. And can she build a grand coalition beyond her immediate, though sizeable, base with other anti-Duterte forces?
This brings us to Sen. Risa Hontiveros, who, against all odds, has rapidly emerged as the most consequential opposition leader in recent years. Hers is—to use Max Weber’s terminology—a remarkable mixture of both the “Ethic of Conviction,” namely her categorical stance against the abuses of the Duterte dynasty, as well as the “Ethic of Responsibility,” namely recognizing the severe threat posed by the Dutertes to our constitutional democracy and, accordingly, the urgent need for coalition-building. Thus, Hontiveros could also very well become the ultimate “unity candidate” if backed by a robust coalition of progressives, pro-Leni reform-oriented parties, and, yes, even the well-oiled administration. With Philippine National Police chief Gen. Nicholas Torre—who has strong “Solid South” roots—rapidly gaining a nationwide following with his decisive yet compassionate style of leadership, one can imagine a formidable “popular front” Risa-Torre tandem for 2028. In their hands, Mr. Marcos can rest assured that the future of the Philippines will be guided by the rule of law and competence rather than by vendetta and populist jungle.
