How many Filipinos progress?
Measuring the people’s progress doesn’t necessarily need multiple observations in time. Even one single observation is enough, if it involves recall of an earlier time and a comparison of the present with the past.
The oldest question in the survey book is on whether the respondent feels the present situation is better, or worse, or the same compared to a given time in the past. This question is very easy to answer. It is a common ‘icebreaker’ in a survey interview, even when far from the objective of the survey.
In our quarterly Social Weather Surveys, we ask a random adult whether, compared to 12 months ago, their present quality of life (QOL)—kasalukuyang uri ng pamumuhay—is better than, the same as, or worse than before—mas mabuti, kapareho ng dati, or mas masama kaysa noon?
Note that this is not about income, spending, or anything measured by money or physical units. Rather, it is about what is relevant to the respondent’s own QOL. It is about the respondent personally, and not about the respondent’s family or whatever reference group. It only counts Filipinos, according to whether they feel they gained, or lost, or neither, compared to a year ago. It does not try to quantify the gains of gainers or the losses of losers.
Last week’s report — “Second Quarter 2025 Social Weather Survey: Gainers minus Losers at +12 in June 2025, up from +5 in April 2025,” (www.sws.org.ph, 9/2/25) – dealt with the 162nd nationwide survey of this item in our archives, from 1983 until now (including 3 surveys of 1983-85 by SWS precursors using the same methodology). Its subtitle, “35% got better off, 23% got worse off, and 42% stayed the same in the past 12 months,” explains the computation of the +12 cited in the title. It is part of Philippine history, which fellow-columnist Ambeth Ocampo defines to include everything with original records that can be validated by researchers.
The history consists of the three main proportions found in a survey round, not only in the latest one of June 2025, but in all the 162 rounds so far. Personally, I am not surprised that most people (the 42 percent) felt their QOL unchanged since the year before. I’m happy that over one-third (the 35 percent) got better off; but that over one-fifth (the 23 percent) of Filipinos felt worse off is, I think, a shame.
Looking over the entire history, only 35 of the 162 survey rounds had more gainers than losers (net +1 or more). The net gainers score was +10 and up, which is definitely favorable, in only 18 rounds. It was single-digit, between -9 and +9, or statistically neutral, in 45 rounds. But it ranged from -10 to -29 (definitely unfavorable) in 64 rounds, and at -30 or worse (very unfavorable) in 35 rounds; the total unfavorable has been 99 rounds.
Fortunately, the pattern of favorable versus unfavorable has improved over the decades, and most of all in the last ten years. This can be seen in the report’s charts and tables, which are marked off by survey date and also by administration.
In the three surveys under Marcos Sr., the net scores were -3 in 1983, -39 in 1984, and -47 in 1985 (a record unbroken until 2008). In 13 surveys under Cory Aquino (1986-92), the scores were positive two times, single-digit negative three times, and double-digit negative eight times, the worst being -38.
The surveys went quarterly under Ramos (1992-98), with all net scores negative: four times single-digit (best at -2), and all other times double-digit, the worst at -32. Under Estrada (1998-2001), all scores were negative and double-digit, the worst at -40. Under Arroyo (2001-10), all net scores were negative, with a new record-worst -50 set in June 2008; only two were single-digit negative, one coming at the very end of her term.
The big improvement began under Aquino III (2010-16), with net scores ranging between -1 to -13 up to June 2014, and then between +3 and +9 up to June 2016. Under Duterte (2016-22), the net scores continued rising up to 2019 (record high +23), except for two single-digit instances in 2018. But the pandemic of 2020 brought catastrophe, with a new worst of -78; the negatives subsided to the minus-30s in 2021, and ended at -2 in 2022. Under Marcos Jr. (2022-present), the scores have been benign — mainly single-digit positive up to late 2023, then going double-digit, reaching +15 in June 2024, retreating to single-digits in 2025, and recovering to the latest +12, which is not a full recovery to pre-pandemic times.
Such markings are for historical tracking only, and do not give the prevailing administration all the blame in times of regress, when losers outnumber gainers, or all the credit in times of progress, when gainers outnumber losers. Of course, good government is always preferable to bad government.
Explaining the ups and downs of the people’s progress requires extensive econometric analysis, taking movements in many factors into account. Thus far, what I am sure of is that the top influencer – it’s not a promoter, but a hindrance — of progress among the Filipino people is the rate of inflation in the cost of living. The size and growth of the Gross National Product in the past four decades have had comparatively little effect on the people’s well-being.
