Philippines: ‘Weak state, strong factions’

Oxford—”Jaime Lannister is my favorite character … he is such a misunderstood guy,” I blurted out as soon as positioned myself next to George R. R. Martin for a formal picture following his pre-event intimate talk at the historic Gladstone Room. Despite being a lifelong member of the Oxford Union, this was only the second event I managed to squeeze into my hectic schedule before the end of the year. The legendary writer behind the “Game of Thrones” trilogy immediately chuckled at my unsolicited comment. “That’s very good … [and no worries] got interesting stuff coming for him,” he added with a grin of satisfaction.

About half an hour later, I managed to secure a front seat for Martin’s main talk at the grand debating chamber, where he sentimentally spoke of his difficult childhood; the traumas of his mother’s déclassé Irish family; his father’s Italian roots (originally ”Mazzuoccolo” before being forcibly anglicized to “Martin” upon arrival in New York); early formative experiences, including with his peculiar pets, which may explain the brutish and nasty nature of his novels; and his accidental journey into becoming a legendary fiction writer after decades of relentless dedication. What stood out for me was his distinction between two types of writers, namely “architects,” who seamlessly engineer the broad outlines of any major intellectual work from a macro perspective, and “gardeners,” who tend to their craft in a more spontaneous, tedious, and micromanaged way. I generally relate to the first type, given my penchant for analyzing the grand struggles of our times, from the emergence of populism to the new Cold War between the superpowers. Writing books tends to be extremely taxing, but it’s more manageable when you constantly flirt with grand theories. Perhaps Ernest Hemingway belonged to the second group when he famously said, “All you do is sit down at a typewriter and bleed.”

Above all, Martin repeatedly reiterated his admiration for one of Oxford’s greatest products: John Ronald Reuel Tolkien. Though not a fantasy fiction fan in general, what I found helpful in both Martin’s and Tolkien’s works is the epic struggle between the countless shades of “good” and “evil”—and the tremendous challenge of centralizing power. What one sees in their works is the prevalence of centrifugal forces and, more specifically, hopeless factionalism. This is extremely relatable for any student of Philippine society, given the weak nature of our national state institutions and the interdynastic wars that define our electoral politics. Three years into the “Game of Thrones” struggle between the House of Duterte and the House of Marcos, we’re now essentially witnessing a Tolkienite “The Battle of the Five Armies” amid the greatest corruption scandal in our history.

First, you have the administration and pro-Marcos loyalists, who are clearly in survival mode. Then you have the pro-Duterte camp, who are more than excited to hijack anticorruption protests. Radicals, meanwhile, prefer a “resign all” formula to pave the way for a new Bolshevik-style regime. As if this weren’t quixotic enough, there is also a protofascist faction pushing for a coup-born transitional council under the aegis of big business and ex-military officers. The fifth faction is the liberal-progressive coalition behind the “Trillion Peso March,” which happens to be under the spiritual guidance of Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David.

The political balance is extremely fragile, with multiple sides in a position to potentially disrupt the entire system. A single major misstep by President Marcos could trigger a coup or mass revolt. So far, the pro-Duterte faction is in a relatively better position, since their champion, Vice President Sara Duterte, happens to be next in line if the incumbent falls and also the leading candidate in a race where she is the only declared contender so far. All preelection surveys show that another Duterte is a clear front-runner to become the Republic’s next president. The “Solid South” has clearly crystallized under a new “identity politics,” which has made the Duterte dynasty a major force in national politics.

The most decisive faction is arguably the “Pink” liberal-progressive coalition—if and only if they manage to rally behind a clear blueprint, a charismatic core leadership, and a no-nonsense strategy that ensures the incumbent makes genuine reforms in his twilight years in office and, crucially, that a grand pro-democracy coalition is assembled ahead of the impending showdown with the forces of darkness. This is the epic battle of our era!