Vietnam’s military preparing for a possible American war
HANOI—A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of aggression” and considered the United States a “belligerent” power, according to a report released on Tuesday.
More than just exposing Hanoi’s duality in approach toward the United States, the document confirms a deep-seated fear of external forces fomenting an uprising against the Communist leadership in a so-called “color revolution,” like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines.
Other internal documents that The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on human rights abuses in Vietnam, cited in its analysis point to similar concerns over US motives in Vietnam.
“There’s a consensus here across the government and across different ministries,” said Ben Swanton, codirector of The 88 Project and the report’s author. “This isn’t just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government.”
US’ ‘belligerent nature’
The original Vietnamese document, titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan,” was completed by the Ministry of Defense in August 2024. It suggests that in seeking “its objective of strengthening deterrence against China, the US and its allies are ready to apply unconventional forms of warfare and military intervention and even conduct large-scale invasions against countries and territories that ‘deviate from its orbit.’”
While noting that “currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam,” the Vietnamese planners write that “due to the United States’ belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.”
The Vietnamese military analysts outline a progression over three American administrations—from Barack Obama, through Donald Trump’s first term, and into Joe Biden’s presidency—with Washington increasingly pursuing military and other relationships with Asian nations to “form a front against China.”
‘Existential threat’
In his term, Biden in 2023 signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Vietnam, elevating relations between the nations to their highest diplomatic level on par with Russia and China.
In the 2024 military document, however, Vietnamese planners said that while the United States views Vietnam as “a partner and an important link,” it also wants to “spread and impose its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion” to gradually change the country’s socialist government.
“The 2nd US Invasion Plan provides one of the most clear-eyed insights yet into Vietnam’s foreign policy,” Swanton wrote in his analysis.
