Don’t waste this oil shock

Somewhere in Tondo, a jeepney driver is doing the math at the gasoline pump. Fuel is up again—because the Middle East is restless again. He’s calculating whether today’s passengers cover a full tank, or whether his family eats a little less this week. Elsewhere, an overseas Filipino worker’s (OFW’s) family is doing a similar calculation: will the conflict that’s pushing oil prices up also disrupt the remittance they depend on? When the region destabilizes, the Philippines doesn’t just lose cheap fuel—it risks losing the income lifeline of millions of households.

Today’s crisis threatens the Philippines with a double whammy. We import roughly 95 percent of our oil, making us among the most exposed economies in Asia to shocks we cannot control. When prices spike, the pain spreads quickly: transport fares rise, freight costs climb, and food becomes dearer. But the Arabian Gulf is not only where our oil comes from. It is also where millions of Filipino livelihoods come from. The 2.5 million OFWs in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and beyond, send remittances worth ~P600 billion yearly (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, 2025)—over 25 percent of total inflows that prop up families and the economy. A potential drop in remittances—which make up more than 7 percent of gross domestic product—and the regional conflict becomes a crippling blow to household budgets across the archipelago.

We’ve watched this cycle for decades: a crisis abroad, a shock at home, headlines for a few weeks, then back to the same vulnerability. What would be inexcusable is to let this crisis pass without implementing lasting structural improvements.

Cushion the blow. The government has short-term tools it should use immediately. The Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion law’s price-trigger provisions allow temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes when prices spike—activating them now would moderate pass-through to transport and basic goods. Targeted support for public transport operators, farmers, and fishers is equally urgent; for those running on thin margins, a sustained fuel spike doesn’t just hurt—it can wipe them out. Demand-side measures—carpooling, staggered hours, expanded work-from-home—help too. President Marcos quickly ordering a four-day work week for select government offices is a step in the right direction. Diversifying oil sources beyond the Middle East to the United States, West Africa, and Latin America must be pursued. Concentration of supply is concentration of risk.

The deeper wound. These steps blunt the immediate pain, but as pointed out in my previous articles on slashing imported fossil fuel dependence and reviving manufacturing, they don’t fix our root exposure to unpredictable global crises. Other Asian countries learned this the hard way—the 1970s oil crises hammered Japan and South Korea, spurring diversification into efficiency gains, rail expansions, and strategic reserves now covering 180+ days of imports (Japan at 254 days), slashing oil’s dominance; even Asean peers like Thailand (boosting self-sufficiency via biofuels) and Indonesia (now global No. 2 in geothermal, overtaking the Philippines) have surged ahead by prioritizing domestics and industry.

A strategy, not just a response. Four strategic initiatives would make a real difference:

Electrify public transport. Accelerate the public utility vehicle modernization program toward electric jeepneys, buses, and delivery fleets under the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act. Every electric vehicle is a barrel of oil the Philippines doesn’t need to import.

Expand rail. Complete Metro Manila’s rail network and build corridors in Clark, Cebu, and Davao to slash fuel demand and support industrial hubs. Mass transit shifts people off fuel-hungry roads, eases traffic, and boosts productivity.

Develop domestic energy. The Philippines has world-class geothermal, strong solar and wind potential, and untapped natural gas. Expand domestic natural gas like Malampaya alongside renewables target of 50 percent renewable energy share by 2040 per the Philippine Energy Plan.

Build a strategic petroleum reserve. Major economies hold 90 days of import cover. The Philippines relies on commercial stocks.

Energy security is a political will problem. The solutions exist. What’s been missing is the commitment to treat energy vulnerability as the strategic liability it is—not a background condition to be endured.

Oil shocks will keep recurring—and they will keep punishing jeepney drivers, fisherfolk, commuters, and families. We must develop indigenous energy sources to cut fossil imports. Our leaders face a defining choice: cling to vulnerability and allow distant fires to torch our economy—or use this crisis to finally build the ironclad energy security a sovereign Philippines demands.

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Pete Maniego is an industrial engineer, lawyer, and industry executive. He is a member of Management Association of the Philippines’ energy and governance committees and a trustee of the Justice Reform Initiative, was a faculty member at the University of the Philippines (UP) College of Engineering and Ateneo School of Government, and former chair of the National Renewable Energy Board, Institute of Corporate Directors, UP Engineering Research & Development Foundation, and Energy Lawyers Association of the Philippines.