Nickel sector braces for the worst
Fuel supply risks linked to the Middle East war are casting uncertainty over the Philippines’ nickel industry, with mining firms warning the next two months will be critical for both output and exports.
This, as leaders of the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) warned on Thursday that they are currently operating on limited fuel buffers, raising concerns over how long production can be sustained if global supply tightens further.
“A lot of us are working on a 15-day to 30-day buffer,” said DMCI Mining Corp. president Tulsi Das Reyes, also director of the PNIA board. “This creates a lot of anxiety. We don’t know where the next 60 to 90 days of operations may come from.”
While current operations remain stable, PNIA officials said the main risk lies not just in rising prices but in the availability of fuel itself, which could disrupt mining activity and shipment schedules.
Nickel Asia Corp. CEO Martin Zamora said higher ore prices have so far helped cushion the impact of rising fuel costs, with additional expenses estimated at around $3 per wet metric ton at current price levels.
However, Zamora warned that further increases could start eroding profitability.
“If it doubles … I’m not sure that some of the mines will be profitable at that point,” he said.
As such, PNIA president Dante Bravo expressed hope that the nickel mining would be classified as a “priority industry” as the government crafts its response to the crisis.
“We hope that, in terms of policies moving forward and how the government is going to address this crisis, we will be included as part of a priority industry,” Bravo said. “We are going to play an important role in stabilizing foreign currencies, exchange rate, generating jobs in areas where you don’t need a subsidy.”
Yet Reyes acknowledged that mining may fall lower on the priority list in the event of a prolonged fuel shortage.
After record 2025
“You talk about food, you talk about power, you talk about the bare necessities. If that were to happen, is mining on the top of that list? I personally don’t think so,” he said. “Naturally, a shutdown would happen. There’s no other choice.”
Despite these pressures, the PNIA said it remains cautiously optimistic about demand, coming off a record 63 million metric tons of exports in 2025 and benefiting from supply constraints in Indonesia.
Reyes said the Philippines was in a “strategic position” in the global nickel supply chain, particularly as Indonesia shifts toward downstream processing and China faces supply gaps, allowing local producers to step in.
Still, the Iran war has introduced a new layer of uncertainty, particularly in logistics.
“We have to be cognizant of the shipping costs and the rising fuel costs. That will affect production, that will affect availability for shipments, that will affect everyone in the whole cycle,” Reyes said.
For now, companies are adopting a wait-and-see stance, Reyes said.
“There are a lot of things beyond our control,” he said.
