Fishy trades spark insider trading allegations
New York—Unusual bursts of trading on the oil and stock markets this week, just minutes before social media posts on the Iran war by President Donald Trump, have added to suspicions of insider trading linked to his administration.
Democratic lawmakers, traders and industry watchdogs are raising alarms, saying such seemingly prescient bets are forming a pattern that suggests people are profiting from prior knowledge of White House decision-making.
“This is the kind of thing that makes people wonder if their government is acting in their best interest or trying to enrich certain individuals,” said Jordan Libowitz, vice president of the ethics watchdog Crew.
In the latest case, trading in oil and S&P 500 futures contracts, in which an investor promises to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price at a later date, saw an unusual spike in trading early Monday.
Just 15 minutes later, Trump posted on his Truth Social network that talks with Iran were “very productive”—a dramatic shift in tone after Trump warned Saturday that he had given Tehran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its energy grid.
The news sent oil prices plunging and stocks surging. People who placed the flurry of futures trades beforehand likely pocketed tens of millions of dollars, according to calculations by a market operator for Agence France-Presse (AFP).
‘A little suspicious’
“Seeing large transactions like these before an announcement is a little suspicious,” said Michael Lynch, an oil analyst at Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “It’s unusual. You don’t see this at this level in the oil market.”
Monday’s incident came a few weeks after six accounts on the betting site Polymarket made $1.2 million on bets that the United States would attack Iran on Feb. 28, the day the war began.
According to an analysis by the analytics firm Bubblemaps, the bets were placed just hours before the bombings were reported.
And in early January, an individual pocketed more than $400,000 after betting on Polymarket that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be ousted just hours before he was seized in a raid by US forces.
So far, there is no evidence to suggest that Trump or White House officials are linked in any way to these transactions.
