Bigger diesel price cut if Middle East truce holds
A cut in local diesel prices—about double what was initially expected—will provide a little relief to consumers next week as a ceasefire in the Middle East war continues to hold.
After weeks of double-digit increases in diesel prices, an industry source said on Friday that prices could be rolled back by P5.50 to P6.50 a liter.
The source’s estimates were higher than his initial forecast of P2.50 to P3.50 per liter. He based these estimates on the average of the first three days of the Mean of Platts Singapore, a key pricing benchmark for refined petroleum products.
The four-day average on Thursday resulted in the bigger estimate. Still, there might not be any price adjustment for gasoline, or just a dip of P1 per liter, he said.
The projections, however, could still change today, as this week’s last trading session ended on Friday.
The Department of Energy (DOE) usually provides estimates every Friday on potential fuel price movements for the following week. However, it suspended this after the Middle East war broke out on Feb. 28.
At a Palace briefing on Friday, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the possible rollback in pump prices will be her “first good news in the last month,” but she did not provide figures.
The expected slash in the prices of diesel and gasoline, however, could barely offset the previous weeks’ increases.
Diesel has breached the P170-per-liter mark.
Up to P185 per liter
The transport group Piston reported on Friday that prices outside Metro Manila, such as around Baguio City and in the Bicol region, had already climbed to P185 and P165 per liter for diesel and gasoline, respectively.
On Thursday, President Marcos said the government would provide a P10-per-liter fuel subsidy for drivers and operators of public utility vehicles, with a cap of 150 liters per week at participating gas stations. Jeepney drivers usually gas up with about 30 liters of diesel per day.
The subsidy will translate to a savings of P1,500 weekly and a total of P18,000 for the three-month implementation period.
Transportation Secretary Giovanni Lopez told Inquirer editors and reporters during a roundtable discussion on Friday that the Department of Energy (DOE) will draft the guidelines for the P10-per-liter subsidy, which his department will implement.
Mr. Marcos said this will be first implemented on selected routes in Metro Manila starting next week and then eventually rolled out in areas outside the capital.
Garin assured the public anew on Friday that gas stations across the country had “a more stable supply.”
Cartel-like behavior
She also said that the DOE had approached the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) asking it to check any possible cartel-like behavior among oil companies, or a deal for coordinated pricing among industry players.
Such a probe was floated as early as July 2025, way before the United States and Israel attacked Iran, igniting the Middle East war and triggering a global oil shock.
At that time, Garin said the agency was on the lookout for “anticompetitive” practices of some fuel retailers, given the noticeably similar fuel price adjustments being implemented every week.
“So far, these are all under investigation or observation to ensure that they are closely monitored. I’m not saying that there are parties that are guilty of this,” she said on Friday.
Garin said that the DOE could provide information on the oil industry, which the PCC or any investigative bodies would need.
On Wednesday, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balicasan told a hearing called by the newly created multipanel Legislative Energy Action Development Council of the House of Representatives that the PCC and the Energy Regulatory Commission had the power to check whether oil companies were engaging in anticompetitive practices.
He said that “given the seemingly excessive margins during this crisis, I think it’s worth looking into closely.”
Close watch
In a statement on Friday, the PCC said it was keeping a close watch on industry players “that may take advantage of the ongoing energy crisis.”
“Even as movements in fuel prices are largely driven by global supply and demand conditions, the PCC is mindful that prolonged periods of economic downturn may tend to cause market to take advantage of uneven access to scarce resources by entering into anticompetititve agreements or abusing their dominant position, thereby distorting competition and leading to unwarranted price increases,” the PCC said.
A week before the war—from Feb. 24 to March 2—diesel prices in Metro Manila ranged from P48 to P73.61 per liter, according to DOE data. These increased to P130 to P170.1 a liter from April 6 to April 13, a 130 percent to 170 percent jump.
Gasoline prices, on the other hand, ranged from P50 to P77.03 per liter, rising to P85.90 to P118.90 for the same period—a hike of 54 percent to 72 percent.
According to Rogelio Alicor Panao, a University of the Philippines political science professor who teaches international political economy, the Philippines has the world’s third highest fuel price hike since the Iran war. Other Southeast Asian countries in the top five are Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. INQ
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