Agriculture officials fear ‘super’ El Niño
As high fuel prices drive up farm input and production costs, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has warned against the possibility of a “super” El Niño toward the end of the year.
“It is no longer a question whether we will experience another El Niño after the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvest. The only question that needs to be answered is its intensity,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said in a statement on Friday.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), there is a 92-percent probability of a moderate to strong El Niño occurring in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Citing a Pagasa presentation, Philippine Rice Research Institute executive director John de Leon said some global climate models even point to a potential “super” El Niño, with projected warming of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius.
De Leon said this scenario could significantly reduce rainfall and strain water resources across key agricultural areas.
With projections pointing to a moderate to strong El Niño phenomenon, Tiu Laurel has directed the managers of the DA’s Masagana Rice Industry Development Program to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
This may include shifting to less water-intensive crops such as mung beans, adjusting planting calendars and accelerating the rollout of solar-powered irrigation systems.
The agency is also coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration to optimize water allocation and ensure the readiness of irrigation systems to support farmers during prolonged dry spells.
Agriculture officials are reviewing rainfall projections and water availability to recalibrate planting strategies and mitigate risks.
The country’s agriculture sector decreased by 2.2 percent to P483.58 billion in 2024, according to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.
The DA and industry stakeholders attributed the sector’s dismal performance to the El Niño phenomenon, a series of typhoons and the prevalence of animal diseases.
Weaker agriculture
Among subsectors, crops sustained a 4.2-percent decline, followed by the livestock sector with 4.3 percent.
The agriculture sector incurred P57.78 billion in damage in 2024, surging by 136.4 percent, one of the biggest losses sustained by the sector.
Meanwhile, the Philippine Sugar Millers Association (PSMA) assured that the country’s sugar supply remains stable and more than adequate to meet both consumer and industrial demand amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Citing data from the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), raw sugar stock increased by 9.59 percent to 677,624 metric tons (MT) as of April 5. Refined sugar inventory surged by 38.38 percent to 529,573.55 MT.
SRA data also showed that raw sugar production stood at 1.47 million metric tons, down 6.27 percent, although the PSMA said the decline was offset by higher carryover stocks.
“The latest SRA data validates that industry inventories are robust and well-positioned,” PSMA executive director Jesus Barrera said in a statement on Friday.
“We are operating from a position of strength, with sufficient supply to cover foreseeable demand. Our priority is to sustain this balance and ensure a stable, predictable market environment that supports both producers and end-users,” added Barrera.
