Securing Asean energy security

Trade Secretary and Asean Economic Community (AEC) Council Chair Cristina Roque —JORDEENE B. LAGARE

Back in February, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) already described 2026 as a “pivotal moment” for regional energy cooperation, as the diverse and populous region begins to implement unified programs against the backdrop of “heightened global uncertainty.”

That feared uncertainty became all too real just weeks later on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, thus plunging the region–and the rest of the world–into yet another unexpected conflict in the Middle East that has caused spikes in not just fuel prices but also prices of basic goods and services and projected to undermine regional growth.

Indeed, this latest Middle East conflict that has entered its 10th week is not just an oil crisis, but an “everything else” catastrophe that has thus made it more urgent for Asean to act with greater urgency to draw on each other’s strength and work together to fortify energy security, sustainability, and connectivity in the region.

Last week, the ministers of energy across Asean affirmed their commitment to do exactly that: strengthen cooperation to safeguard regional energy as well as food security, not by acting as individual countries but as a region fired by a common resolve to address this latest challenge.

Severe consequences

“Asean is united not only in its assessment of the situation, but also in its response. Ministers agreed that addressing issues, particularly on energy, food, and supply chains, are regional in nature. And because they are regional, they require a coordinated regional response,” stressed Trade Secretary and Asean Economic Community (AEC) Council Chair Cristina Roque.

The urgency of coordinated action cannot be understated as the oil crisis will have severe consequences for the region, prompting the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to “significantly” downgrade its economic growth outlook to 4.7 percent this year from 5.1 percent and raise inflation projections to 5.2 percent in 2026 from 3 percent in 2025.

ADB even said that under renewed conflict escalation that will push up prices even further in May, regional growth can further decelerate to 4.2 percent while inflation or the rate of increase in the prices of basic goods and services that a typical household purchases will accelerate to a multiyear high of 7.4 percent this year, which will push more citizens across the region back into poverty.

Fragile ceasefire

The Philippines, which imports almost all of its fuel requirements from the Middle East, already reported a 7.2-percent spike in inflation for April and it may even worsen as the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in very real danger of unraveling.

“We are confronting systemic, long-lasting disruptions to global energy and trade networks, not just temporary volatility,” stressed ADB President Masato Kanda, as he explained ADB’s update to reflect the “deepening crisis” in the region.

The Philippines, which is chairing Asean at this time of great volatility, must leverage on this unique position in history to ensure that the upcoming high-level meetings will not be mere talk fests but momentous gatherings with tangible outcomes.

Among the immediate steps that the Philippines can do, for example, is to bring Asean leadership closer to ratifying the Asean Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security that will pave the way for coordinated emergency fuel sharing and collective response to unprecedented supply disruptions.

This should be pursued alongside the fast-tracking of the Asean Power Grid that will help ensure energy supply across the region for essential services such as health care and logistics.

A singular opportunity

Over the longer term, the Philippines can lead the way for Asean leaders to reinforce their commitment to pursue the Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2026-2030 that provides for, among others, achieving 30 percent renewable energy share in total primary energy supply, and 45 percent in installed power capacity by 2030.

Roque said these collective measures were expected to be reflected in a joint statement to be adopted by the AEC and submitted to the Asean Summit chaired by President Marcos that will be held in Cebu this week.

“Asean is strongest when it acts together, especially in times of uncertainty. As chair, the Philippines remains committed to ensuring our response remains practical, coordinated, and focused on what matters most: people,” said Roque.

These are indeed difficult times but the Philippines has a singular opportunity to demonstrate uncommon leadership in keeping with its chairship theme of “Navigating Our Future, Together” and push key measures across the finish line, ultimately making the region better prepared to handle the fallout of not just this latest turmoil in the Middle East, but other crises that will inevitably emerge in the future.