Super El Niño: More dire warnings
The Philippines could see an estimated 6,500 additional heat-related deaths due to the Super El Niño, according to researchers with the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab on Wednesday.
The country ranked ninth among 50 that will be most affected by extreme heat.
On a worldwide scale, Chicago researchers said an estimated 451,000 additional deaths from extreme heat could occur during the first nine months of the ongoing El Niño.
“We project that 451,000 lives will be lost due to heat the first nine months (June-February) of El Niño, compared to a normal year,” they said. “This is about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood.”
Extremely hot days
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil are the top five countries impacted by heat due to the Super El Niño from September 2026 to February 2027.
In Southeast Asia, the research said an additional 19,400 heat-related deaths are projected across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, while Indonesia could record another 19,300 deaths due to extreme heat.
Scientists forecast global land temperatures to average 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in the coming months, largely due to the current Super El Niño, which began in June and is expected to persist through spring in the Northern Hemisphere.
“These anomalously warm conditions will resemble the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future (figure below) and will lead to 44 percent more extremely hot days than we would expect in a normal year,” said researchers.
“With current forecasts suggesting El Niño will remain in place through spring 2027, we expect all of these numbers to grow even higher, particularly as impacts such as higher-than-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will linger into June and July,” they added.
Researchers said several solutions are already available, including anticipatory financing, heat early warning systems and action plans that help health officials identify vulnerable groups, conduct home visits, increase access to water, and monitor heat-related symptoms.
“Mortality projections for the near term provide a signal of where we are headed if new adaptation investments do not materialize. The difference with climate change is that there is more time to undertake adaptations to save lives,” they said.
Earlier, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said climate models and assessments indicate that El Niño could intensify to a “very strong” level between September and December
El Niño is a climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can bring below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells and drought to affected areas.
