PH seen importing 5.7 million tons of rice

The Philippines is projected to import 5.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice next year as the country builds its buffer stocks against risks from drought and monsoon rains and in anticipation of a production shortage.

The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) revised its import forecast for the Philippines upward as storms, monsoon rains and the developing El Niño might affect domestic output amid elevated retail prices.

The latest estimate is almost 2 percent higher than the foreign agency’s previous forecast of 5.6 million MT for the period. If realized, this would surpass the record importation of 4.81 million MT recorded in 2024.

“Rice imports are maintained to offset the anticipated production shortfall, consistent with Department of Agriculture guidance on building buffer stocks against drought and monsoon risk,” the USDA-FAS said in a report.

The DA said in an earlier congressional briefing that the country might import as much as 5 million MT to ensure sufficient rice inventory in light of severe weather conditions.

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The USDA-FAS reduced its rice production forecast to 12.25 million MT for next year compared with an earlier estimate of 12.4 million MT. This, as drier weather conditions during the May-to-June planting season and higher fertilizer costs hamper the production of palay (unmilled rice).

“This downward pressure was partially offset by a sharp recovery in reservoir levels at key irrigation dams beginning in August and continuing through September 2026, which has improved irrigation prospects for dry-season planting from November to December,” the report said.