Teodoro’s China stance not enough to win
Philippine social media has been inundated with posts and comments fueling speculation that Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr. is preparing a bid for the presidency in 2028. If indeed he eventually seeks the presidency, he will enter the race with substantial credentials in national defense and security.
Teodoro’s tenure as defense secretary has positioned him as the most visible voice on territorial sovereignty and maritime security. Yet, his strong position on China may not provide a sufficient foundation for a successful presidential campaign.
This is not because Filipinos oppose the defense of national sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea. Rather, it reflects a reality of Philippine politics that presidential elections are decided by a much broader set of political, economic, and social considerations.
Teodoro has consistently advocated a firmer response to China’s assertive actions at sea. His position reflects legitimate national security concerns and resonates with Filipinos who view China’s maritime activities as offensive.
However, what strengthens a leader’s standing in national security does not automatically translate into solid electoral success. Filipino voters have traditionally prioritized issues that directly affect their daily lives. Inflation, food prices, employment, wages, health care, education, transportation, housing, public safety, and corruption consistently rank among the electorate’s principal concerns.
While foreign policy can influence public opinion, it rarely determines electoral outcomes. Candidates are ultimately judged on their perceived ability to improve the country’s economic conditions and address everyday challenges of Filipinos.
This creates a political challenge for Teodoro. His public image has become increasingly associated with strategic competition with Beijing. Such a profile may enhance his credibility as a defense leader but may narrow his political identity when voters are searching for solutions to a wider range of national problems. Presidential candidates must demonstrate competence not only in protecting sovereignty but also in generating jobs, reducing poverty, and improving governance.
The Philippines regards China as a competitor in the maritime domain. Yet, China continues to play a significant role in trade, investment, manufacturing, tourism, and infrastructure development. Many Filipinos therefore support a firm defense of Philippine maritime rights while recognizing the importance of productive economic engagements with China.
The 2026 Pew Research Survey revealed that Filipinos aged 18 to 34 expressed favorable views of China. It also found that a large majority of Filipinos regarded China as the country’s principal external threat. These findings suggest not a pro-China electorate but a population capable of separating security concerns from economic and diplomatic engagements.
Public attitudes of Filipinos toward foreign policy rarely determine voting behavior. Nonetheless, the data indicate that many younger Filipinos approach China through a more nuanced lens. They may support defending Philippine sovereignty while also favoring economic cooperation with China.
Former Sen. Francis Tolentino, for instance, became one of the country’s most ardent advocates of a tougher stance on Chinese activities in West Philippine Sea. Yet, he failed to secure reelection in 2025. His experience strongly demonstrates that even a credible position on sea disputes is not, by itself, a guarantee of electoral victory.
Younger Filipino voters constitute an increasingly influential segment of the electorate. Their priorities often revolve around employment opportunities, innovation, entrepreneurship, digital transformation, affordability, and upward mobility.
Foreign and security policy issues can strengthen a campaign narrative, but they rarely provide a sufficient basis for winning a national election. Voters generally look for leaders who can integrate foreign policy, economic management, social development, and governance reform into a coherent national vision.
This is not an argument against Teodoro’s national security positions. The question is whether a presidential campaign can be built principally around security issues when voters continue to prioritize socioeconomic development and better governance.
Teodoro’s challenge therefore is not China itself. It is persuading voters that his vision extends beyond the China question. His victory in 2028 will depend less on his ability to challenge China but more on his ability to convince Filipinos that he offers a comprehensive agenda for the country’s future.
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Rommel C. Banlaoi, Ph.D., is director of Philippines China Studies Center at Diliman College and president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies. He also served as president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies.
