Asean’s test of political will

Photo courtesy of the Presidential Communications Office

President Marcos could not be blamed for raising expectations that the long-delayed Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea will be finalized at the 49th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit the country is hosting this week, coming as it is amid China’s aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea.

Conflicting territorial claims and China’s expansionist moves in the greater South China Sea (SCS), a vital lane for global trade, have made adopting a binding code even more urgent as the region and the world grapple with geopolitical and economic challenges, including the war in the Middle East that caused fuel prices to soar.

The COC has been on the Asean plate for almost a quarter of a century–at least since 2002, when Asean members and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) with their commitment to promote peace and stability in the region through peaceful resolution of territorial disputes.

The DOC explicitly states that Asean and China agreed to resolve conflicting claims “by peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force,” “exercise self-restraint,” refrain from inhabiting features in the SCS, and respect freedom of navigation in the strategic sea lanes.

Rotating chairmanship

The DOC was followed by the signing of guidelines by the foreign ministers of China and Asean in 2011, and negotiations for the COC formally began only in 2018. In 2023, Asean and China agreed to “expedite the conclusion” of negotiations this year.

At the Asean Summit previously held last May in Cebu, the Asean leaders’ statement said they would “endeavor to conclude the negotiation of an effective and substantive Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea…”

Thus, the job of steering Asean to achieve that target fell on Mr. Marcos’ lap as the country held the rotating chairmanship of the 11-member group this year. In May, he said: “So, again, that is one of our aspirations as chair of Asean for 2026, that we find at the end of the year, that we actually have a Code of Conduct.” Even so, he conceded that the SCS situation has become “more unreadable” and it was further complicated by the fact that Asean members have different approaches when it comes to China.

Major sticking points

And as Asean and world leaders converge in Manila today and for the next two days for the Asean summit and meetings with dialogue partners, the dream of a code of conduct has remained beyond reach. The Associated Press reported earlier that progress had been made but negotiations would not conclude as agreed. “The last major sticking points are the geographic scope to be covered by the agreement, the definition of sensitive terms and whether the accord should be legally binding or not, according to the three diplomats,” the AP said.

Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary and spokesperson for Asean Dominic Xavier Imperial confirmed in a briefing yesterday that “70 percent of the COC package” had already been agreed, with 30 percent of issues yet to be threshed out.

That remaining 30 percent constitutes Asean’s true test of political will, as it involves crafting a COC that will be binding on the Asean members and China, something which the latter has pushed back against through its allies in the regional bloc. Even the language of the COC has been contentious, with Asean members not wanting to offend China, which is a major economic partner for the region.

A nonbinding COC would just be as meaningless as the DOC, which has failed to dissuade China from occupying reefs and building military installations on features within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Chinese ships continue to swarm the West Philippine Sea, using water cannons and laser beams to drive away Filipino fishermen from their traditional fishing grounds and block resupply missions to a Philippine outpost in Ayungin Shoal.

Volatile region

China would never dream of having a code of conduct signed, sealed, and delivered in the Philippines, which won the 2016 arbitration case against Beijing’s sweeping claims in the SCS and which many nations have supported. It would be another slap in China’s face.

The past 24 years have shown that Asean’s indecisiveness in resolving the maritime conflicts in its own backyard only encourages China to disregard international laws and regional accords, flexing its economic and military muscles to claim the entire SCS. This has prompted countries like the Philippines to seek strategic partnerships with Western powers to protect their sovereignty and peace in the volatile region. In the process, Asean loses its influence and relevance in shaping its own region’s affairs.

So if not in the Philippines, and not this year, the Asean must continue to work for the adoption of a meaningful and binding COC to serve its people, not those who seek to wield power over the region for their own selfish gain.