Agri yield seen to shrink in 2024
Harsh weather and the recurrence of African swine fever (ASF) severely battered the Philippine agriculture sector as production declined by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of this year.
In a report, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the sector yielded just P397.43 billion worth of goods from P412.7 billion in the same period the year prior. Except for poultry, all commodity groups registered decreases.
This marked the second consecutive contraction in the farm sector’s performance in 2024 following a meager 0.2-percent increase in the first quarter of this year.
The Department of Agriculture attributed the farm sector’s lukewarm performance to adverse weather conditions and poor hog production to the lingering impact of ASF.
“Undeniably, the combined effects of El Niño and La Niña weighed down palay production, a major contributor to the crop sector, which accounts for more than half of the value of agricultural and fisheries output,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said in a statement.
Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa noted it may now be difficult to attain production targets this year.
Roy Kempis, director of Center for Business Innovation at Angeles University Foundation, said farm output was expected to decline for the rest of 2024 as it would take months for the sector to fully recover from the onslaught of typhoons and other natural calamities.
The PSA data showed that value of crop output stood at P211.62 billion, a decrease of 5.1 percent. It accounted for 53.2 percent of overall production.
Palay contributed the most to the contraction, as it slid by 12.3 percent, while corn inched up by 1.3 percent.
Kempis said an immediate recovery for crops was “not possible.”
“The expected trend of agriculture output for the rest of 2024 is: a decline. With typhoon Leon and the incoming typhoon Marce, as well as other possible typhoons for the rest of the year happening, agricultural output will take a few months to recover,” he said in a Viber message.
Federation of Free Farmers national manager Raul Montemayor agreed, saying the entry of storms coincided with the peak harvest season.
He said any carryover stocks for 2025 “will be lower than normal” even though imports can offset losses.
Livestock production, meanwhile, dipped by 6.7 percent to P61.67 billion, with hog yield dropping by 8 percent.
A downward trend was also projected to persist until the first quarter of 2025 with ASF affecting all major swine-producing regions.
