BofA: PH still lagging in Asean tourism revival

Mauban Tourism Office

The Philippines continued to be a laggard in the ASEAN tourism recovery amid muted return of Chinese visitors, Bank of America (BofA) said, and the situation would unlikely take a turn for the better anytime soon following President Marcos’ order to ban China-centric online casinos.

In a commentary sent to reporters on Tuesday, Kai Wei Ang, economist at BofA, said the Philippines’ “underperformance” partly stemmed from the exodus of Philippine offshore gaming operators or Pogos during the Covid-19 onslaught in 2020. These gaming operators mostly employ Chinese nationals to cater to punters in mainland China, where gambling is banned.

Ang said Chinese arrivals in the Philippines were “still below 20 percent of 2019 levels.” This is because the pandemic-induced departure of Pogos coincided with the slow return of Chinese tourists after China reopened its economy much later than other Asian countries.

”The Philippines is lagging considerably behind [in ASEAN], with tourist arrivals below 70 percent of 2019 levels,” he said.

In his last State of the Nation Address, Mr. Marcos ordered gaming regulators to shut down Pogos, which flourished during the term of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.

The presidential order was the final nail in the coffin for Pogos after the pandemic and tighter tax rules forced many to relocate at the height of lockdowns. The move heeded loud calls from various sectors to ban the industry that had been linked to various crimes like money laundering and human trafficking.

Transport data compiled by BofA showed outbound seats from China to five ASEAN destinations are expected to grow in the second quarter of this year through October, except in the Philippines.

“The Philippines is an outlier, with outbound seats [from China] falling to 46 percent of 2019 levels,” Ang said.

For this year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasts tourism receipts—a source of dollars for the economy—to grow by 40 percent. That would contribute to the projected $1.6 billion dollar surplus in 2024 which, if realized, would be smaller than the $3.7 billion windfall recorded in 2023.

Elsewhere in ASEAN, BofA said Vietnam is the “clear leader” in the tourism recovery because of its more relaxed visa rules, while Singapore is middling as the one-time big boost in international arrivals due to Taylor Swift concerts faded.

Meanwhile, Malaysia could expect bigger Chinese arrivals, with inbound travel seats from China expected to beat prepandemic level, the Bank added.