Cebu holds its residential ground
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy rate was raised to 5.5 percent on Oct. 22, the fourth hike this year.
September inflation accelerated to 7.2 percent, and the Philippine Statistics Authority put second-quarter gross domestic product growth at 2.3 percent, the weakest since 2021.
Central Visayas inflation, meanwhile, ran at 8.1 percent in August.
But despite all of these negative developments, the fundamentals behind Cebu’s residential market remain intact.
What the BSP numbers say
The BSP’s Q2 2026 Residential Property Price Index shows Metro Cebu prices marginally declined by 0.2 percent year-on-year, after a 9.4-percent gain in the first.
Housing loans in Metro Cebu also fell 24.9 percent from a year earlier, pointing to a possible strain in the province’s residential market.
However, there is also demonstrable resilience in the market: prices rose 2.4 percent from the previous quarter, and Metro Cebu fared much better than areas outside Metro Manila, which fell 2.7 percent.
Cebu condominiums gained about 6.4 percent year-on-year at a median of P4 million, and condominium loans jumped 30.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, though they remain 8.7 percent below 2025 data. Although housing loans fell about 6.7 percent for the P4.99 million median, the data shows buyers are still borrowing and banks are still lending, reflective of continued confidence in the market.
An economy built for mortgages
Central Visayas’ regional economy grew 7.3 percent in 2024.
Then in 2025, Cebu took a magnitude 6.9 earthquake and two strong typhoons.
The province slowed to 2.7 percent, yet Cebu City grew 5.8 percent, and its per capita output of P365,037 is nearly double the regional P192,739.
Employment in the region stood at 96.2 percent in 2025, with unemployment at 3.8 percent and 2.8 percent in Mandaue, the lowest among its cities.
Health services and public administration led the city’s growth at 13.1 percent and 9.3 percent.
Nurses, teachers and civil servants—the workforce behind these industries—hold the steady salaries that banks naturally lend against. Further, Information Technology and Business Process Management, or IT-BPM, employed about 1.89 million Filipinos in 2025, and Concentrix, Accenture and Teleperformance run large Cebu operations.
The Department of Trade and Industry’s 2024 competitiveness index ranked Cebu City 13th among highly urbanized cities.
All these factors sustain the province’s residential market, as shown by at least 16 major townships in the province alone, the second-largest concentration outside of Metro Manila’s 32.
Tourism helps fill the units
Central Visayas drew 7.5 million visitors and P125.92 billion in receipts in 2024, according to the Department of Tourism.
Apart from tourism providing employment and peso-power for residential demand to the workforce, those visitors fill hotels and short-stay condos as well, and the rental income helps investors carry their loans.
Based on 2025 AirDNA figures, there are 4,705 listings in Cebu City alone, with an estimated annual gross revenue of P1.5 billion.
Although arrivals in Cebu Province fell 10.71 percent in the first half of 2026, Lobien Realty Group (LRG) Research expects a recovery once oil prices settle in 2027.
Infrastructure widens the map
Roads, runways and piers raise the value of every home within reach. Mactan-Cebu International Airport handled 11.6 million passengers in 2025 and opened its second runway in January of that year.
Cebu’s ports moved 75.9 million metric tons of cargo and 19.6 million passengers last year, with cargo up 5.5 percent, and a new international container port is rising in Consolacion on a $172.64-million Korean loan.
The Cebu-Cordova Link Expressway is open, partial Bus Rapid Transit service began on March 13, and the P76.41 billion fourth Cebu-Mactan bridge is slated to start this year.
A study for a 67.5-kilometer railway is due in the fourth quarter. Lapu-Lapu’s population grew 4.26 percent a year against 0.93 percent in Cebu City, and better road links make land there and in the northern towns more affordable for workers priced out of the city centers.
Again, the employment from these projects also provides support to residential demand.
A shortage underneath
The Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development estimates a 588,396 housing shortage in Central Visayas, and at least 10 percent of them in Cebu City alone.
The regional planning agency says licensed development has met only 36 percent of this demand—pointing to the existence of latent housing demand.
Market risks
The risks in Cebu’s housing market are real.
Another interest rate hike, an El Niño food-price spike, or a longer Middle East conflict could push rate relief further out, and LRG Research expects Cebu prices to stay flat to slightly negative into 2027 from these headwinds.
But a market with high employment, a reliable number of visitors, international accessibility through seaport and airport, and more than half a million housing shortage points to strong underlying demand. Those who borrow sensibly and buy housing units near work, schools and transport will be rewarded, and developers who phase launches and price to the market will find them. Cebu, without a doubt, has what it takes to hold its residential market ground.
(The author is the CEO of Lobien Realty Corp.)
