Coffee gets pricier amid global, local supply crunch
A cup of joe is about to get much more expensive, and Filipino coffee lovers might need to spend more on their daily caffeine fix.
Limited global supplies, shipment delays and low harvests are driving up coffee prices, with the Philippine Coffee Board Inc. (PCBI) saying price hikes could take effect in December and persist through the first quarter of 2027.
PCBI director Ceasario Rex Kapunan says that while big chains can absorb additional costs, small shops have less flexibility to bear the brunt of higher coffee prices.
“Not all coffee is expensive. There are big chains that buy coffee in bulk, and they can control certain market prices,” Kapunan says. “When I say coffee [prices] will increase, it’s more for the small mom-and-pop shops.”
To manage rising costs, café owners and coffee roasters are looking for alternatives to coffee beans from Brazil, among the world’s leading coffee suppliers.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, coffee is the most widely traded tropical agricultural product, with around 25 million farming households producing 80 percent of the world’s coffee output.
Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia are the world’s leading coffee producers, while the European Union and the United States are the largest consuming and importing markets.
The Philippines continues to import significant volumes of coffee to meet domestic demand, with local output accounting for only 40 percent of the overall supply needs.
Kapunan says dwindling supplies have made Brazilian coffee beans both more expensive and difficult to secure.
“It has become difficult to source Brazilian coffee because there is no stock. Even the big traders cannot get any. We’re trying to look for local beans,” he adds.
According to Kapunan, Brazilian Arabica is priced between P650 and P750 per kilogram, while Benguet beans range from P750 to P900 per kg. He notes that delayed shipments and low harvests are compounding the situation.
“Those with money will try to hoard as much [supply as they] can; those dependent on a per-order basis will run out of supply. Prices will go up. But everything is just going up. Everything is going up except the minimum wage, the spending capacity of [consumers],” he says.
Domestic players are considering reformulating their blends or changing the espresso beans used in their coffee shops.
Café owners intend to support the Philippine coffee community and local farmers, but Kapunan says some opt for imported beans after learning that homegrown beans are more expensive.
“It’s always a balance between what the quality of your product is, how much it is and what [price] the consumers are willing to pay,” Kapunan says.
Although external factors will affect coffee prices in the international market, Nestlé Philippines will explore all possible options to make coffee accessible for Filipino consumers.
In an email to the Inquirer, Nestlé Philippines says it accounts for various factors when making pricing decisions, such as overall business costs, market conditions and its commitment to providing consumers with quality products and good value.
“We also recognize the importance of keeping coffee accessible to Filipino consumers, particularly when households are managing higher costs across many everyday needs,” the company says.
“At Nestlé, we drive efficiencies wherever possible across our operations and supply chain to help mitigate these pressures and avoid price increases where we can,” it adds.
The PCBI says domestic coffee production may fall short of 30,000 metric tons (MT) in 2026 due to rising input costs and El Niño.
“We might not be able to reach 30,000 MT because at the rate it’s going, globally, coffee that used to grow in low-lying areas now has to be cultivated in elevated areas because the temperature has risen around the world,” PCBI chair Pacita Juan says.
If this comes to pass, it would be the first time that production levels would fall below the 30,000-MT level since 2022, when output totaled 29,957 MT.
Coffee bean output totaled 35,645.64 MT in 2025, an 11.46-percent increase from 31,979.26 MT a year ago, based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) is closely monitoring the situation and preparing various measures to help farmers cope with the effects of El Niño, including improved water management, provision of appropriate farm inputs and coordination with regional offices and partner agencies.
“The DA, through the Coffee Industry Development Office, is working to strengthen support for coffee farmers, improve farm productivity and promote suitable coffee varieties and better farming practices,” the agency tells the Inquirer.
The Department says these initiatives aim to make local coffee production more resilient to changing weather conditions.
“The DA continues to prioritize strengthening local coffee production to help reduce the country’s dependence on imported supplies over time,” it adds.
For its part, Nestlé Philippines is actively managing its sourcing and supply needs to ensure the availability of its products while supporting Filipino coffee farmers through its programs.
“We continue to work with local farmers to improve productivity, strengthen climate resilience and promote more sustainable farming practices, while working closely with government and other partners to strengthen support for coffee-growing communities,” the company says.
