DA forecasts lower rice imports this year
The Department of Agriculture (DA) is projecting lower rice imports this year due to an expected improvement in local production, better weather conditions and higher stock carryover.
In a briefing on Wednesday, Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said it was “reasonable” to project 3.8 million metric tons (MT) to 4 million MT of stocks coming in this year.
“Definitely, if this trend will continue, it (rice import volume) will be lower,” he told reporters.
Rice imports reached its peak of 4.8 million MT in 2024, surpassing the previous record high of 3.83 million MT attained in 2022, based on data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI).
Alongside the large volume of stocks still available from last year’s importation, local production should see better harvest since “we don’t expect any extreme climate conditions,” said De Mesa, also the DA’s spokesperson.
Per the BPI data, traders purchased 804,347.088 MT of imported rice as of March 27, down by 32.2 percent from the 1.2 million MT recorded as of end-March last year.
Vietnam cornered a market share of more than 80 percent during the period. Thailand and Pakistan came next with about 8 percent each.
Accounting for the remainder were Myanmar, India, South Korea and Italy.
The government’s projections is in line with the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) forecast: that imports would drop to 5.2 million MT for the coming marketing year July 2025 to June 2026, from the projected 5.3 million MT for the current marketing year. USDA uses July as the start of the marketing year.
According to the foreign agency, a rebound in domestic production, higher stock carryover and the price cap for imported rice set by the DA early this year would help slash rice imports.
The report also said Vietnam and Thailand were to remain the country’s key suppliers due to established trade relationships, geographical proximity and competitive prices.
Imported rice would be carrying a 15-percent tariff until 2028 under Executive Order No. 62 signed by President Marcos last year. The rate would be subject to a periodic review every four months.
The DA previously said it would recommend a gradual decrease in tariffs as retail prices have begun declining amid government interventions, such as the price cap for imported rice and various support programs for farmers.
“What should not happen, and I don’t think it’s right, is [to raise the tariff rate] from 15 percent to 35 in one go. It’s dangerous,” Tiu Laurel had said.
