DBCC cuts growth targets for 2026-2028
Cracks in economic confidence last year due to the third-quarter slump, brought on by the flood control corruption scandal, have pushed the Marcos administration to recalibrate its growth targets in 2026 through 2028.
The Interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), which met on Dec. 9 to review targets, scaled down its growth goal for this year to 5 to 6 percent, coming from the previously set 6 to 7 percent.
“The reason for the scaling down of growth arose from the reality that we saw and have been seeing both globally and domestically,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said during a Malacañang press briefing after the presidential signing of the 2026 national budget.
“We haven’t really gone back to the growth expected before April of last year,” he added.
Although the DBCC has yet to release an official joint statement, Balisacan confirmed that the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers he cited already reflect the committee’s decisions last December.
The lowered targets came after the third-quarter GDP slumped to a four-year low of 4 percent, weighed down by cuts in government infrastructure spending amid the widening flood control corruption probe.
It brought the year-to-date average to 5 percent, falling short of the government’s 5.5- to 6.5-percent target band for 2025.
Balisacan earlier noted that growth would have had to reach at least 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter to meet even the lower end of the target. The government now forecasts full-year growth for 2025 at 4.8 to 5 percent.
“The developments last year are expected to be felt into 2026, although with diminishing effect. We expect growth in the first half to still not be quite as rosy as we would want it to be,” Baliscan said.
Rebound eyed
Even with recalibrated targets, Balisacan said the government remains bullish on an economic rebound in the second half of 2026, driven by improving consumer confidence that is expected to lift growth.
He noted that inflation has remained steady, settling at 1.5 percent in November and projected to stay within 1.2 to 2 percent in December. The government is set to release December’s inflation data today, Jan. 6.
Inclusive 2026 budget
“I think that we are seeing favorable forces moving forward. We do expect that the broad economy will grow sufficiently strong, especially toward the second half of the year,” Balisacan said.
In a separate statement on the 2026 national budget, the economic planning secretary expressed optimism that the newly passed budget can contribute to economic development for its sustainability and inclusivity.
The P6.793-trillion budget, he said, is a strategic road map for economic recovery and shows the Marcos administration’s commitment to “transparency, accountability, and prudent fiscal stewardship.”
“The 2026 Budget is deliberately structured to enhance human development, strengthen food security, and expand job creation. These investments help ensure that growth is not only robust but also widely shared,” he said.
“Greater inclusivity, in turn, lays the foundation for stronger and more sustainable economic performance in the medium to long term,” he added.
