Gov’t debt hits record-high P18.16 trillion
The national government’s outstanding debt climbed for the fifth consecutive month, rising to a new peak of P18.16 trillion in February, as slightly higher domestic borrowing offset a decline in external loans.
According to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr), the debt stock at end-February was up 0.14 percent from the previous month.
Using the Philippine Statistics Authority’s latest population data of 112.7 million, this means each Filipino now owes roughly P161,140.
“The modest uptick underscores the government’s stable and well-managed debt position amid evolving global financial conditions,” the BTr said.
Despite the rise, UnionBank of the Philippines chief economist Carlo Asuncion said the fresh peak largely reflected a timing effect.
“[It reflects] routine domestic borrowing early in the year rather than a deterioration in our debt position. The increase was modest, and the shift toward peso‑denominated debt actually helps limit FX (foreign exchange) risk,” he said.
Domestic debt, which accounts for the bulk of total obligations, increased 1.25 percent to P12.48 trillion. This is consistent with the Marcos administration’s strategy of prioritizing local financing to “protect the government’s debt position from unfavorable external developments.”
Meanwhile, external loans fell 2.21 percent to P5.68 trillion, with the BTr attributing the decline to favorable foreign exchange movements.
To recall, the peso rebounded from record lows in January to around P57 per dollar by late February before slipping back to P59 at the end of the month amid the Middle East war.
Looking ahead, Asuncion cautioned that the government’s outstanding debt may continue to rise.
“Debt may still increase in the coming months amid global uncertainties, but sustainability will depend more on economic growth, revenue collection and interest costs than on month-to-month movements,” he said.
Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the level was “manageable but fragile.”
”The key is discipline—better tax collection, smarter spending and growth fast enough to outrun the debt. Markets are watching consistency, not just one month’s number,” he said.
The Marcos administration has set a full-year borrowing ceiling of P19.06 trillion for 2026, with February’s debt figure already consuming about 95 percent of the limit.
Of the planned borrowings, P2.68 trillion will come from both domestic and external sources—P2.05 trillion from domestic creditors and P627.1 billion from abroad—maintaining a domestic-to-foreign debt ratio of roughly 77:23.
These funds are intended to cover a projected budget deficit of P1.65 trillion, equivalent to 5.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.
