Lower rice, corn harvests expected in Q3
Production of palay (unmilled rice) and corn could post double-digit declines this third quarter, according to the latest estimates of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), with smaller harvest areas expected to gnaw on output.
Based on standing crops as of Aug. 1, the PSA estimated palay production in the July-to-September period at 3.19 million metric tons (MT), down 15 percent from the 3.75 million MT harvested in the same period last year.
This was also 2.2-percent lower than the agency’s July 1 estimate of 3.26 million MT.
That decline is expected to come mainly from a smaller harvest area, which the PSA projected to shrink by 15.8 percent to 771,790 hectares (ha) from 916,770 ha a year earlier.
Palay yields, however, could improve slightly to 4.13 MT per ha from 4.09 MT.
Corn production is likewise expected to take a hit, with output projected to fall 14.4 percent to 2.08 million MT from 2.43 million MT a year ago. The latest estimate was also 1.5 percent below the 2.11 million MT projected as of July 1.
Unlike palay, however, corn is expected to see declines in both harvest area and productivity.
The PSA expects corn harvest area to contract by 12.8 percent to 688,030 ha from 789,240 ha, while average yield could slip by 1.6 percent to 3.02 MT per ha from 3.07 MT.
As of Aug. 1, about 113,790 ha, or 14.7 percent of the projected palay harvest area for the quarter, had already been harvested, yielding 455,250 MT. About 129,950 ha, equivalent to 18.9 percent of the projected corn harvest area, had also been harvested, producing 366,790 MT.
The latest outlook comes after successive typhoons “Luis,” “Maymay,” “Neneng” and “Pilandok,” which also aggravated the southwest monsoon and caused P4.38 billion in agricultural damage.
Palay accounted for P2.05 billion in losses, equivalent to 65,106 MT of lost production, while corn damage reached P127.6 million, representing 4,707 MT in production losses.
The projected decline in palay production, in particular, follows a record second quarter, when output reached 4.63 million MT, the highest for the April-to-June period since the PSA had begun recording the data in 1987.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. had said the higher output would be crucial in building up the country’s rice stocks ahead of the anticipated impact of El Niño.
