Modest rise in global grain prices seen in 2026
Global grain prices are expected to rise next year, although sufficient harvests may likely temper any price spikes, according to a research unit of Fitch Solutions.
In a report, BMI said the strong seasonal output for the 2025-2026 season is expected to boost physical supply throughout the year, which will help keep any price increases in check.
“Favorable grain harvests amongst key exporters underpin this view,” the report said.
“With subdued domestic Brazilian demand, elevated exportable supplies ensure ample global corn availability through 2026,” the research firm said.
BMI said in the United States, corn harvests in the 2025-2026 cycle would likely increase by 13.1 percent to 427 million tons.
After a period of abundant harvests, BMI anticipates tighter output in the next planting cycle, which could lend some support to prices.
US corn output is pegged at 384.4 million tons in the 2026 to 2027 season, down 10 percent due to expectations of a reduced corn acreage.
Likewise, weak prices are seen to prompt Brazilian farmers to cut planting ahead of the January 2026 first corn crop.
Brazil produced 136 million tons in the 2024-2025 harvest season that ended in September.
BMI also said wheat prices were facing near-term downward price pressures because of the improved seasonal production in the 2025-2026 period.
“Both harvests are now complete, ensuring supply availability and dampening the near-term outlook. However, beyond the near-term supply abundance, we expect a recovery in Chinese grain demand to provide price support,” BMI said.
The European Union is seen to produce 141.5 million tons, a 16-percent increase, while Russia’s output is seen to climb by 4 percent to 84.8 million tons.
China’s grain imports declined in 2025, with purchases plunging 94.9 percent to 6.3 million tons of corn from January to November. Its wheat imports slumped by 83.1 percent.
Citing a report from the US Department of Agriculture, the research firm said China’s corn imports may soar by 150 percent in the 2025 to 2026 season. It also expects China’s wheat imports to rise by 43.9 percent.
Meanwhile, BMI said soybean prices benefited from improving US-mainland China trade relations.
“While trade improvements with China provide a degree of support, the prevailing supply abundance is expected to cap meaningful price appreciation going forward,” it said.
