PH agricultural output likely grew in Q2
Philippine agricultural output is expected to have expanded in the second quarter of 2026, although it recognizes that El Niño and other challenges could temper its performance for the rest of the year, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
“For the second quarter, we’re confident that it (agricultural production) will increase,” said Arnel de Mesa, Agriculture assistant secretary and DA spokesperson.
However, he did not provide a specific estimate.
Despite this optimism, de Mesa said the ongoing El Niño poses risks to overall agricultural output. The latest Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration climate bulletin indicates that the dry spell could persist until early 2027.
“If we look at the expected timing of El Niño, it’s possible that the third-quarter harvest will still be spared. And now, there is some rainfall, hopefully it will not cause severe flooding. Hopefully, the rain falls in the right watershed areas,” he said.
De Mesa said crops, which contribute to more than half of the overall agricultural production, are expected to recover based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) initial assessment.
“The initial feedback came from the PSA because it is conducting an analysis on the standing crops. Based on that, there is a possibility of an increase in the area planted to rice,” he said.
De Mesa said strong palay (unmilled rice) prices during the last harvest season encouraged farmers to cultivate the household staple in more areas.
He also said repairs to parts of the Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation System in Nueva Ecija, which serves around 40,000 hectares of rice land, helped expand the area planted to rice.
“But beyond rice, we are also seeing a recovery in fisheries and crops other than rice, such as corn,” he added.
De Mesa said rising farm exports will also boost production, highlighting ongoing talks with Japan for a tariff on banana exports and free trade deals with Canada and the European Union.
“Once the agreements take effect, they are expected to boost the production of high-value commercial crops. This will contribute to growth because the prices for our exports will be higher,” he told reporters.
The country’s farm output fell by 0.3 percent to P437.52 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to the PSA. The value of crops and fisheries production decreased, while livestock and poultry increased.
In 2025, agricultural production rose by 2.6 percent to P1.77 trillion, its highest growth since 2017.
The University of Asia and the Pacific Center for Food and Agri Business (UA&P-CFA) said full-year farm production might be flat in 2026, ranging from a 0.5-percent drop to a 0.5-percent growth.
“Overall, the outlook suggests a mixed performance across subsectors, wherein poultry and livestock supporting the growth, while crops and fisheries remain under pressure,” UA&P-CFA executive director Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul said in a webinar.
