PH may need not increase rice imports

PNA photo by Yancy Lim

Improving harvest situations despite dry conditions brought by El Niño might mean that the full-year inflow of imported of milled rice will not increase in 2024, according to the latest estimates by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, in a report, revised downward its rice import forecast for the Philippines to 3.9 million metric tons (MT) from its previous projection of 4.1 million MT—made last March—due to a “larger crop.”

The lowered forecast settles at the same level of Philippine rice imports in 2023. Over the past four years, the volume of inbound shipments have been increasing steadily since 2.45 million MT in 2020.

In its latest report issued this month, the American agency raised its forecast for Philippine milled rice output for this year to 12.6 million MT from 12.3 million MT in March.

Meanwhile, the USDA’s estimate of total global imports is “nearly unchanged” at 53.4 million MT from 53.3 million MT as estimated in March.

The estimate for global exports was similarly raised slightly to 53.4 million MT from last month’s 53.3 million MT.

So far, rice cargoes that entered the archipelago have surpassed the million-MT mark, with the latest data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showing that imports totaled 1.17 million MT as of April 4.

Vietnam remains the leading source of milled rice shipped to the Philippines with 62.4 percent or 734,583 MT of the total. Thailand came second with 251,738 MT while Pakistan placed third with 124,038 MT.

The Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) said earlier traders are anticipated to source more imported rice to meet the demand for the staple Filipino food ahead of lean months.“

Although the prices remain high, importers may be anticipating low supplies in the coming months, particularly during the lean month period from July-September, given the expected decline in production due to El Niño,” FFF national manager Raul Montemayor said in a message.

The FFF said rice import purchases so far this year are “quite surprising” as global prices from January to March are about 30-percent higher than in the same period last year.

Montemayor said some of the importers’ shipments of imported rice arrived in the early part of 2024, adding that orders were placed as free-on-board (FOB) prices of Thai and Pakistani rice declined to $560 to $570 per ton as opposed to Vietnam’s FOB price of more than $600 per ton. INQ