PH remittance growth stayed at 4-year low in May
Money sent home by overseas Filipinos continued to post modest growth in May, underscoring the vulnerability of remittance flows as tensions from the prolonged conflict in the Middle East threaten to disrupt the livelihoods of migrant workers.
Cash remittances sent through banks rose 2 percent from a year earlier to $2.7 billion, according to data released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). The pace matched April’s increase, leaving remittance growth at its slowest in four years.
In the first five months of the year, cash remittances totaled $14.1 billion, up 2.5 percent from a year earlier. That, however, remained below the BSP’s downwardly revised forecast of 2.7-percent growth for full-year 2026.
“The May remittance data suggest that growth remains positive but may be losing some momentum,” Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at UnionBank of the Philippines, said.
“More importantly, the renewed risk of a US-Iran escalation raises the possibility that the impact on OFW employment and deployment in the Middle East could become more visible in the months ahead,” he added. “While remittances remain resilient for now, we believe downside risks have increased and may not yet be fully reflected in the latest data.”
Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the continued growth of remittances despite the turmoil in the Middle East was “encouraging.”
“This reflects the diversification of Filipino workers across different regions and the strong culture of family support among OFWs,” Ravelas said.
“Historically, periods of uncertainty often lead overseas Filipinos to prioritize household financial security back home,” he added.
The United States remained the largest source of remittances, accounting for 39.4 percent of total inflows based on reported origin. The BSP, however, noted that the figure largely reflects the location of correspondent and remitting banks, many of which are based in the United States.
Singapore accounted for 7.4 percent of total remittances, followed by Saudi Arabia with 6.4 percent.
Looking ahead, John Paolo Rivera, senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said remittances may remain broadly resilient for the rest of the year, although growth may stay moderate given global uncertainties.
“Key risks include a prolonged geopolitical conflict, slower global growth, and persistent inflation in host economies,” he said. “Nevertheless, remittances should continue to provide important support to domestic consumption, the peso, and the country’s external accounts.”
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