PH remittances rose 3.5% in Jan despite seasonal pullback
Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos sustained their growth at the start of the year on the back of steady and resilient overseas employment conditions, despite a pullback from December’s seasonal surge.
Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Monday showed that money sent home by Filipinos rose 3.5 percent to $3.02 billion in January from the same month a year ago.
Although this pace of growth was slightly faster than the previous month’s 3.3 percent, the amount was still 14 percent lower than the $3.52 billion logged in December.
This slowdown was largely due to inflows normalizing in January after peaking during the holiday season.
“The pullback from December is largely seasonal after the holiday surge, but the key point is remittances are still higher than a year ago, showing OFWs’ income remains resilient,” said Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co.
By country source, the United States remained the top contributor to cash remittances, accounting for 40.2 percent of the total, followed by Singapore with 7.6 percent and Saudi Arabia with 6.7 percent.
Robert Dan Roces, group economist at SM Investments, echoed Ravelas’ sentiment.
“The 3.5-percent year-on-year increase in January cash remittances likely reflects steady overseas employment and deployment in late 2025 that is now translating into inflows, with the weaker peso possibly encouraging more conversions into local currency early in the year,” Roces said.
At the time, the Philippine peso tested record lows, hitting 59.46 against the dollar on Jan. 15.
Pressure ahead
Meanwhile, personal remittances—including cash sent through banks, informal channels and remittances in kind—also grew 3.5 percent to $3.36 billion from $3.24 billion in January 2025.
On the downside, the escalating Middle East war is seen to disrupt inflows as it could affect the overseas employment of Filipino workers in the region.
In 2025, cash remittances from the Middle East totaled $6.5 billion, or roughly 18 percent of total inflows, with over 2.4 million Filipinos working in the region. Just recently, more than a thousand OFWs had been repatriated from the region.
Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan warned during a House hearing that remittances could decline by as much as 65 percent from the 2025 level, assuming a total deployment ban and repatriation.
If realized, this reduction could shave up to 0.14 percentage point off the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026.
Analysts, however, remain cautiously optimistic.
“Looking ahead, the Middle East conflict adds uncertainty and could cause month-to-month volatility, but unless it leads to widespread job losses or payment disruptions, full-year remittance growth should stay positive,” Ravelas said.
Further, Roces said that there is still demand for Filipino workers.
“Remittances should remain broadly stable in the coming months, supported by continued demand for Filipino workers abroad, although risks have risen following the recent Middle East tensions given the region’s importance as a major source of remittances,” he said.
For 2026, the central bank is targeting cash remittances to grow 3 percent year-on-year, reaching $36.6 billion.
