Philippine rice imports expected to decline
Philippine rice imports are expected to end up 5.4 percent lower than originally expected this year following the temporary ban imposed by the government in September, according to a US report.
The US Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) slashed its 2025 rice import forecast for the country to 3.5 million metric tons (MT), from 3.7 million MT previously.
The foreign agency lowered its estimate for marketing year 2024 to 2025 as the Philippines “significantly reduced buying due to the temporary import ban.”
For marketing year 2025 to 2026, the USDA-FAS pegged rice imports at 5.5 million MT.
Marketing year in the country begins in July and ends in July of the following year.
President Marcos extended the import ban until Dec. 31 to protect local farmers from downward price pressures caused by importation. It also wants to sustain market stability and safeguard consumer welfare.
The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) previously reported that prices of palay or unmilled rice had dropped to as low as P8 per kilogram due to the influx of cheap imports.
The government imposed the moratorium on Sept. 1, covering regular and well-milled rice. It excludes speciality rice varieties not commonly produced by local farmers, including Japanese, black and basmati rice.
The DA earlier said the government would lift the four-month suspension in early January, about a month before the next harvest season begins in February.
If the latest projections are met, this would still make the Philippines the world’s leading rice importer next year, followed by Vietnam with (4.1 million MT), Nigeria with 3.2 million MT and China with 3 million MT.
In a separate report, the USDA-FAS said local rice production may decrease by 1 percent to 12.3 million MT for marketing year 2025-2026 because of successive typhoons that hit plantation areas.
“After a good start to the Philippines rice crop season, which led to well above-average production estimates, untimely rain fell in early to mid-November stemming from Typhoon Fung-wong,” the USDA-FAS said.
“Torrential rains led to localized flooding in the northern Philippines major rice producing provinces, most notably, Central Luzon and the Cagayan Valley,” it added.
Central Luzon and Cagayan Valley are among the country’s rice producing regions, accounting for roughly one-third of the domestic output.
The DA reduced its outlook on 2025 palay harvests to a range of 19.61 million metric tons (MT) to 19.89 million MT, citing weather disturbances.
The revised estimates were slightly below the previous outlook of 20.2 million MT to 20.5 million MT and the DA’s initial target of 20.46 million MT.
This year, the country imported 3.34 million MT of rice as of Dec. 4, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed. Vietnam took the lion’s share with 81.2 percent or 2.71 million MT.
