Recto forecasts faster PH growth in next 3 years

The Philippine economy is expected to see “stronger growth ahead” as the government takes steps to address the loss of taxpayer money to questionable infrastructure projects, according to Finance Secretary Ralph Recto.

Recto said in a statement that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) could expand faster than the average growth of 5.9 percent per year that was observed so far during the Marcos administration.

This was lower than the government’s target growth rate of at least 6 percent. Still, Recto said the Philippine GDP growth had been “one of the highest” in the region.

For 2026 until 2028, the Marcos administration’s economic team is shooting for 6 percent to 7 percent. This was a downward revision from the previous target of 6 percent to 8 percent for the same period.

Recto said growth would be faster over the next three years, considering that “the government is addressing the leakages exposed by the recent flood control controversy and building stronger institutions and better governance.”

He said faster growth would be driven by “low inflation, easing policy rates, strong consumer spending and a vibrant labor market.”

Related to this, Recto said the Department of Finance and its attached agencies were primed for a bigger task without a significant increase in resources.

The DOF alone is proposing P37.78 billion for its 2026 budget. If Congress approves, the amount is just one percent higher than the department’s allocation in the 2025 General Appropriations Act.

“The amount is very small compared to its [DOF’s] herculean task of collecting P13.65 billion a day in revenues and plugging the P4.51-billion deficit per day to support the P18.61 billion daily spending of the government,” Recto said.

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He said that, to ensure a reliable revenue stream, tax collection needed to grow by 10.2 percent yearly from 2025 to 2028.

This would push total revenues toward P6 trillion by the end of the President’s term in mid-2028.

Also, if revenues achieved such growth, total intake would breach the P7-trillion mark by 2030.

“If the government strictly adheres to its refined fiscal program and maintains disciplined and efficient spending, the size of the Philippine economy is projected to reach P42.6 trillion by 2030, while keeping debt at P24.7 trillion, equivalent to 58 percent of GDP,” Recto said.