Stocks, dollar swing as Trump inflation talk offsets rate cut bets
HONG KONG—Equities and the US dollar were range bound Wednesday while gold hit a fresh record as expectations for a US interest rate cut played up against the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency, which analysts say could see inflation-fueling tax cuts and tariffs.
While Wall Street saw another day of record highs owing to bets on lower borrowing costs and a more market-friendly White House, Asian dealers trod more cautiously as they also kept tabs on a key economic meeting of China’s leaders in Beijing this week.
Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell ramped up hopes for a rate cut last week when he acknowledged prices were being brought to heel and told lawmakers that bank officials did not need inflation to fall to their two percent target before moving.
Powell’s remarks came as other decision-makers expressed optimism that the battle was being won, with governor Adriana Kugler adding her voice on Tuesday.
Kugler said that if economic indicators remain favorable, “I anticipate that it will be appropriate to begin easing monetary policy later this year”.
“If the labor market cools too much and unemployment continues to increase and is driven by layoffs, I would see it as appropriate to cut rates sooner rather than later,” she said.
However, she added that she would be inclined to hold rates higher if she was not confident inflation was coming down.
Sticky
While inflation is slowing, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook update that it remained sticky and could still cause headwinds. However, some economists warned the Fed was waiting too long.
Also Tuesday, data showed US retail sales smashed expectations, leading observers to lift their economic growth outlook.
“While the underlying sales picture may not be quite as good as the headlines, the fact is, the consumption component of gross domestic product (i.e. most of it) looks like being decent,” said National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill.
Attrill added that there was now a growing belief the Fed will cut rates as many as three times this year.
While a reduction is increasingly likely, the dollar has held its own against its peers due to a surge in Trump trade bets that he will win re-election in November after the weekend assassination attempt and questions about incumbent Joe Biden’s health.
Anticipation
“The dollar is currently influenced by two conflicting forces, each driving its path in different directions,” said ACY Securities analyst Luca Santos.
“The anticipation of a second presidential term for Donald Trump could lead to increased fiscal stimulus and new tariffs on US imports. This, in turn, could elevate US inflation, thereby boosting rates and yields,” Santos said.
“On the negative side, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been growing due to recent weaker-than-expected US inflation and economic activity data,” Santos added.
Equities swung in Asian trade after the Dow posted a second straight record and the S&P 500 pushed to a fresh all-time high.
Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta rose, while Shanghai, Seoul and Taipei dipped.
Gold pushed to a new record of $2,482.42 an ounce, pushing past its previous record of $2,450.07 reached in May, thanks to rate-cut expectations.
The precious metal usually rises when borrowing costs are lower as it is more attractive as an investment and the weaker dollar makes it cheaper for traders using other currencies.
