T-bill rates rise further on Iran war worries
The escalating Middle East war continues to rattle investors, who demanded higher returns for the third straight week on Monday’s Treasury bill (T-bill) sale, again leaving the Marcos administration with lower-than-targeted issuance.
Data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed that the issuance of short-dated securities raised just P19.2 billion of the P27-billion program. This marked the second consecutive week that the BTr partially awarded the auction, despite total tenders amounting to P36.8 billion or 1.4 times oversubscribed.
“Treasury bill average auction yields again went up for the third straight week, since the war in the Middle East started on February 28, 2026,” said Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.
The 91-day T-bill fetched an average rate of 4.9 percent, higher than the preceding auction’s 4.677 percent.
Average rate for the 182-day paper also rose to 4.948 percent from 4.795 percent previously, while creditors asked for an average yield of 5.066 percent for the 364-day T-bill, up from 4.849 percent in the last offering.
“Yields rose after global crude oil prices reached a near four-year high amid risks to global oil supply chains, despite plans for record releases from oil reserves,” he added.
As it is, the war is seen to push March inflation to between 4.5 percent and 7.5 percent. Overall, the economic shock could shave off up to 0.3 percentage points from the country’s gross domestic product for the year.
Another factor behind the higher yields, Ricafort added, was the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona Jr.’s signal that policy rates could rise in April if oil prices exceed $100 per barrel.
