USDA forecasts slightly higher rice yield in PH
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly raised its forecast on local rice production amid the Philippine government’s support for the sector and the sale of subsidized rice.
In a report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimated domestic milled rice output at 12.25 million metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2025 to 2026 that begins in July.
It represents a small increase of 0.4 percent from its projection of 12.20 million MT for marketing year 2024 to 2025.
“Continued support from the government for the rice industry and the sale of subsidized milled rice supports the estimated increase in rice production,” the foreign agency said.
It also cited favorable weather conditions in the first quarter of 2025 and the government’s support through the P30-billion Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF).
The USDA-FAS said the rainy season during the second quarter of this year would boost local production, particularly in leading rice-producing regions like Central Luzon, Ilocos and Western Visayas, offsetting the impact of the dry season in Cagayan Valley.
“Farmer contacts report that the support from the government has been instrumental in ensuring continuous rice production,” the USDA-FAS said.
The report noted that the RCEF, which provides farm inputs, farm machineries and equipment to eligible farmers, has translated to higher yield and wider area for harvesting.
“Additionally, farmer contacts report that the National Food Authority’s (NFA) Price Range Scheme (Pricers) provides farmers with additional market to sell their palay output at higher prices, which encourages farmers to plant more rice,” it said.
Palay (unmilled rice) production totaled 4.698 million MT in the first quarter of 2025, slightly higher than 4.685 million MT in the same quarter a year ago, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
USDA-FAS maintained, however, its rice import estimate at 5.2 million MT for marketing year 2024 to 2025 and 2025 to 2026.
“Industry contacts involved in rice milling and rice trading reported that favorable global rice prices strengthened the demand for imported rice, which they identified to have excellent attributes (i.e., in terms of aroma, and lesser brokenness) at lower prices relative to locally produced rice,” the report said.
Data from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization showed that the price of Vietnam 5-percent broken rice stood at $397.7 per MT as of May, nearly a 30-percent decline from $568 per MT in the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s 25-percent broken rice price reached $414.8 per MT, down by 30.1 percent from $593 per MT.
Vietnam and Thailand are two of the country’s main sources of imported rice.
The country has imported 2.1 million MT of rice as of June 19, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed. Vietnam cornered 75.1 percent of the overall volume.
