Warning: Why global trends, macroeconomic changes and geopolitics can burn your money in 2026
Most business leaders don’t lose money because they make reckless decisions. They lose money because they underestimate forces they don’t fully understand.
In my work advising family business conglomerates, Fortune 500 CEOs and self-made billionaire entrepreneurs across continents, I have seen the same mistake repeated over and over again: leaders optimize their businesses brilliantly for yesterday’s world while quietly ignoring the one that is already forming.
This 2026 will not punish ignorance. It will punish complacency. Clarity begins with understanding trends, macroeconomics, geopolitics and technological inflection points—not as abstract concepts, but as real forces that directly affect your money, your business model and your personal wealth.
Why trends are always important
In my experience collaborating with and advising business leaders, one pattern keeps repeating itself with almost frightening consistency: the failure to understand, respect and act on trends.
Let me be very clear: ignoring trends is not a passive mistake. It is an active strategic failure.
Trends are not academic theories. They are not “nice to know.” They are the invisible forces that quietly reshape markets, destroy business models and transfer wealth from the unprepared to the prepared.
I often use a simple analogy when I explain this to CEOs and business owners: Trends are like ocean waves. You, as a business leader, are the surfer.
If you understand the waves, read them early and position yourself correctly, they can carry you forward with enormous force and momentum. You move faster, with less effort and often further than you ever could by paddling alone.
If you ignore them, underestimate them or pretend they don’t exist, those same waves will hit you head-on—and they will crush you.
What many leaders fail to understand is this: You don’t need to predict trends perfectly. You need to recognize them early enough and respect their direction.
I have seen highly intelligent, experienced and well-capitalized leaders wiped out—not because they were stupid, lazy or unethical—but because they were late. Late to technology shifts. Late to consumer behavior changes. Late to geopolitical realignments. Late to macroeconomic cycles.
How to surf the wave
In contrast, I’ve seen average businesses outperform far more sophisticated competitors simply because their leadership asked better questions earlier: What is changing right now? Why is it changing? What stays the same—and what does not? This is where the surfing analogy becomes even more important.
A surfer does not fight the ocean. A surfer does not complain that the wave is unfair. A surfer does not argue that “the old waves were better. A surfer observes, adapts, positions and commits.
The same applies to business. Trends don’t ask for permission. They don’t care about legacy, size, brand or past success. They reward those who move early and punish those who hesitate, deny or rationalize inaction.
History is brutal on this point. Look at once-dominant companies that dismissed early signals because they were still profitable at that moment. Internally, the warning signs were often visible. Externally, the shifts were already happening. But leadership comfort, ego or short-term incentives delayed decisive action—and the wave eventually became too big to escape.
This is why, in my practice, I insist that trend analysis must never be outsourced entirely, delegated downward or treated as a once-a-year exercise.
Trends three to thrive
Trend awareness is a leadership responsibility. The most effective leaders I work with do three things consistently:
1. They track global trends obsessively, even outside their own industry.
2. They get external advisors and experts who challenge their internal narrative.
3. They act earlier than feels comfortable, knowing that waiting for certainty is often the most expensive strategy of all.
And here is a crucial point many miss: You don’t need to ride every wave. But you must know which waves are forming—because the wrong wave can destroy your entire business, while the right one can redefine it for decades.
Now the speed, scale and interconnectedness of trends have reached a level we have never seen before. Technology, geopolitics, capital flows, demographics and consumer psychology are no longer moving independently; they are colliding. That means the waves are getting bigger. And they are coming faster.
The leaders who survive—and thrive—will not be the strongest or the smartest.
They will be the ones who see the waves early, position themselves decisively and ride them with discipline and humility.
I often recall the Nokia boardroom at its peak, where internal data signaled the smartphone trend. The CEO dismissed it, assuming their existing phones were superior. That wave washed over them.
Similarly, McDonald’s nearly lost a generation by missing the health food trend.
The lesson is clear: build trend task forces, make trend analysis a cultural norm and surf the waves with intention.
The iPhone and ChatGPT moments
Think back to when the iPhone first came out. Then think back to your first interaction with ChatGPT. These are defining moments that signal massive new trend waves. You do not need to be a genius to recognize that something fundamental is happening here. I sometimes talk to business leaders who are not smart enough and talk about the limitations artificial intelligence (AI) still has, the hallucinations, the mistakes, etc. They are completely missing the point. This is detail.
You have to look at the big picture. From a helicopter view, for sure, something massive and new is going on. Look back to Apple when the iPhone came out. Imagine you were a CEO then who started to obsess about how the new smartphone trend would change the world. For sure, you would have had an ocean of opportunities to create massive success—in virtually any industry! Look at the impact this massive wave has had on any area of our lives globally.
The lesson: It is enough to call the big shots. The obvious trends (the signals) without getting side-tracked by stuff that ultimately will not matter, like the AI mistakes or hallucinations (the noise).
Geopolitics: The changing global world order
One of the biggest blind spots I see among business leaders is geopolitics. Many still treat geopolitics as “background noise”—something for diplomats and analysts, not CEOs. That assumption is dangerous.
Again, the big picture is enough. Watch how China versus the United States of America plays out. Get expert advice from people who understand how geopolitical forces interact and the many changes they bring to how we used to do business up to this point. Be ready to become a constant learning machine. This will be your best insurance policy!
Tom Oliver, a “global management guru” (Bloomberg), is the chair of The Tom Oliver Group, the trusted advisor and counselor to many of the world’s most influential family businesses, medium-sized enterprises, market leaders and global conglomerates. For more information and inquiries: TomOliverGroup.com or email Tom.Oliver@inquirer.com.ph.
