Carpio: Let’s be wise to China’s ‘playbook’
Former Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio warned on Thursday that China may turn Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal into a “monitoring station,” following a pattern Beijing has used to establish manned facilities on other features in the South China Sea.
“China is saying [they] are putting up a nature reserve. Now, to operate a nature reserve, you must monitor it and it can be manned,” Carpio told reporters on the sidelines of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Leadership Summit in Quezon City.
Carpio noted that in 1987, China built a weather station on Fiery Cross Reef, which it initially said was for oceanic research with the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization or Unesco. Fiery Cross has since become one of Beijing’s largest military outposts in the Spratly Islands.
He pointed out that a similar approach was used at Mischief Reef, where Beijing initially claimed it was constructing only a shelter for fishermen.
Pattern
“They have a playbook. We’ve seen this before and we must be wiser this time. Let’s prepare for it. How? Let’s expose them … You can see all the maps, historical maps, documents and everything. So, we have to counter disinformation,” he added.
Panatag lies about 220 kilometers west of Zambales, within the Philippines’ 370-kilometer exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
The shoal has been under Chinese control since 2012, a situation that continues to heighten tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
Carpio was part of the Philippine delegation involved in the case before The Hague, whose landmark 2016 ruling invalidated China’s “nine-dash line” claim over the South China Sea, including areas within the Philippine EEZ.
BrahMos missiles
Carpio also said the Philippines should respond not only through legal channels but also by boosting military deterrence, particularly with additional BrahMos cruise missiles.
“I leave it to the military. But my suggestion is to acquire more BrahMos missiles because they are mobile. When you can strike your enemy at any time and your enemy cannot strike you, you control your enemy,” he said.
Carpio added that the BrahMos missiles could be concealed behind natural terrain, while Panatag’s fixed location meant that missiles could simply be programmed to strike it, giving the Philippines a strategic advantage.
The BrahMos system can travel at speeds up to Mach 2.8 and has a range of 290 to 400 kilometers. It can be launched from ships, aircraft, submarines or land platforms.
The Philippines received its first batch of BrahMos missiles in April 2024, followed by a second delivery in April 2025.
Under a 2022 agreement with India, the country will acquire a total of three missile batteries worth P18.9 billion.
Second arbitration case
Carpio urged the government to anticipate Beijing’s strategy, citing China’s “three warfares”: shaping public opinion through disinformation, advancing a legal narrative, and maneuvering diplomatically.
He also renewed calls for a second arbitration case against China, expressing hope that the Marcos administration will act before the end of its term.
Meanwhile, Philippine Navy spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad said the military has prepared contingency measures should China take any escalatory steps.
“The government has been very clear that all our actions will ensure the integrity of the national territory,” Trinidad told reporters in a chance interview on the sidelines of the same summit.
“In the event that actions from the other side are deemed escalatory, we have appropriate contingency plans to ensure that not one square inch of our territory will be lost,” he said.
Trinidad added that acquiring additional missile systems has long been part of the military’s modernization program.
“Part of the modernization plans of the Armed Forces includes looking at other missile systems or rather, more missile systems,” he said, noting that specific details fall under the Department of National Defense.
