El Niño set to be ‘strong,’ UN warns
Geneva, Switzerland—El Niño is here and will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fueling the likelihood of extreme weather, the United Nations’ climate agency warned Friday.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the climate phenomenon would rapidly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.
El Niño warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
Conditions oscillate between El Niño and its opposite La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points toward “a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September.”
Heat wave risks
The UN agency classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.
“El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of … extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the WMO said.
WMO climate scientist Alvaro Silva told a press conference that since last month, “we have much more confidence that strong El Niño conditions are developing in the equatorial Pacific.”
He said the WMO may issue an update in the coming months, “for example, if we have forecasts suggesting this will be a really strong El Niño.”
Across many regions
The Geneva-based agency said forecasts produced by global climate centers, using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
“Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions,” it said.
“El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe.”
The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55 C above the 1850-1900 preindustrial average.
While El Niño usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later.
“The impacts of El Niño will be felt in different regions until the end of the year and beyond, also during 2027,” Silva underlined.
