Extreme weather threatens elections, democracy
Floods, fires, and extreme weather increasingly pose a threat to democracy, with at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries disrupted by natural hazards over the past two decades, a report published on Wednesday said.
Between 2006 and 2025, at least 26 elections and referendums have been postponed, either fully or in part, due to natural disasters, according to the report by Stockholm-based democracy and electoral assistance institute International IDEA, published to coincide with Earth Day on April 22.
Others have been disrupted by floods, hurricanes, heat waves, and landslides, as human-driven climate change is raising global temperatures and worsening extreme weather.
In 2024 alone, extreme weather disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, the report, entitled “Managing Natural Hazards and Climate Risks in Elections,” said.
Fragile systems
“From hurricanes and floods to wildfires and heat waves, these events are damaging infrastructure, displacing voters, and forcing last-minute changes to electoral processes,” International IDEA said in a statement.
Among other things, the report detailed the effects of Hurricane “Sandy” on the 2012 US federal election, a 2023 quake on Turkiye’s presidential and parliamentary elections, an intense heat wave on 2025 Philippine national and local elections, floods and landslides on Bosnia’s 2024 local elections, and cyclones on 2019 elections in Mozambique.
Professor Sarah Birch of King’s College London said the study highlighted the importance of timing elections.
“Elections should be held when disasters are least likely; in some cases, electoral management bodies will also need to consider alterations to election timelines to reduce the likelihood of disruption by short-lived disasters,” she said.
Extreme weather not only poses problems for the holding of elections but can also have long-term effects on democracy.
“Precarity and trauma from natural hazards can exacerbate affected citizens’ existing grievances, facilitate the spread of conspiracy theories, and impose additional hardship on society’s most vulnerable people,” the report said.
The authors called on countries to consider including electoral processes in their national climate adaptation plans and disaster risk reduction strategies.
