NATO on the defensive after battle with Russian drones
LONDON—For more than three years, Ukraine has waged an almost nightly battle against Russian attack drones. Nato on Wednesday got a taste of that fight.
Polish authorities said they detected 19 violations of their airspace, prompting a million-dollar response as fighter jets were scrambled and Patriot air defense systems placed on alert. Up to four drones were shot down with the help of Nato allies.
The incursion showed Nato’s vulnerability to drone warfare. Russian authorities said they didn’t target Poland, and Belarus, a close ally, said some of the drones “lost their course” because they were jammed. Nonetheless, several European leaders and experts said Poland was deliberately targeted.
If one or two drones crossed into Polish airspace, it could have been a “technical malfunction,” but it “defies imagination that it could have been accidental” when there were 19, said Poland’s Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski.
Looks ‘deliberate’
While proving intent is difficult, “to have several to lose their way is starting to look rather deliberate,” agreed Thomas Withington, an expert in electronic warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
A goal, he suggested, could have been to test Nato’s reaction and ability to respond to drones.
Since January, Russia has fired at least 35,698 attack drones at Ukraine according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the Ukrainian air force.
But until Wednesday, no Nato country had sustained multiple incursions into its airspace. It was the first time Nato airpower was engaged against enemy targets inside a Nato country.
Drone fragments were found about 554 kilometers into Polish territory—deeper than any previous incursion.
Much remains unclear, and for now, Nato is cautious. “We do not yet know if this was an intentional act or an unintentional act,” US Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, Nato’s supreme allied commander Europe, said Thursday.
Responses
But, based on what is known about Russian drones and how they respond to electronic warfare, the experts who spoke to AP said it was highly possible the incursions were deliberate.
There are two key ways to neutralize most drones: either shoot them down, or hit them with electronic signals interference. Jamming and spoofing are the main ways to do that.
Russian attack drones—known as Shaheds—are “hard to disrupt” electronically, drone specialist Ash Alexander-Cooper said, which is why Nato scrambled jets to take them down.
F-35 and F-16 fighter jets and Black Hawk helicopters were deployed, as well as Soviet-designed MI-24 and MI-17 helicopters, the Polish Defense Ministry said. German Patriot missile defense systems in Poland were also placed on alert.
The response, Alexander-Cooper suggested, was economically disproportionate to the threat.
“Firing million-dollar missiles … is not an economical model that can be sustained” against drones that cost tens of thousands of dollars, he said.
Gen. Wieslaw Kukula, general commander of the Polish armed forces, said, “What matters is the value of what this drone can destroy. If it’s a Polish life, it has no price.”
