Nothing to gain from sending warships to Panatag–expert

A maritime expert said the country has “nothing to gain” by deploying warships off Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, while another said there is a need to calibrate strategy in anticipation of more intense Chinese actions following a collision between a People’s Liberation Army-Navy warship and a China Coast Guard vessel.
Analysts weighed in on the matter after National Maritime Council (NMC) spokesperson Alexander Lopez ruled out the deployment of Philippine warships to Panatag despite the unprecedented direct participation of a Chinese warship in the Aug. 11 incident.
However, Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, Navy spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, maintained that Armed Forces of the Philippines assets like warships have never left the shoal’s vicinity.
Asked when he thinks the two statements appear to be contradictory, SeaLight director and maritime security expert Ray Powell said: “No. I think they are intentionally ambiguous.”
“And honestly, I understand that,” Powell told the Inquirer in a message on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday.
‘Intentionally ambiguous’
For security expert Chester Cabalza, the government spokespersons made “intentionally ambiguous” pronouncements because “China acts ambiguously at the same time.”
“Ambiguity plays in an all-out gray zone environment that is open for multiple interpretations,” Cabalza, president and founder of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told Inquirer on Tuesday. “This guessing game act becomes effective when the opponent behaves in a deceitful manner.”
Since its effective takeover of Panatag Shoal in 2012, after not withdrawing its forces despite a mutual agreement with Manila, Beijing conducts what Powell termed as exclusion zone enforcement there, flouting the 2016 arbitral award, which declared the shoal a shared fishing ground for China, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Word of caution
The direct participation of Beijing’s warship is in line with this policy, and Powell said, “Manila would have nothing to gain by deploying warships to Scarborough Shoal.”
“For the Philippines, there’s no obvious upside to pushing gray-hulled navy ships into China’s illegal exclusion zone—it would only give Beijing a pretext to escalate further,” Powell said.
After the Aug. 11 collision, “it may be prudent to calibrate our actions in the next few weeks,” said Rommel Jude Ong, a retired Navy rear admiral and a professor at the Ateneo School of Government.
“There is always a possibility that China will create situations to retaliate against their recent humiliation to save face,” he told the Inquirer.
Nevertheless, Ong said, “while it is understandable for [NMC] to pursue a course of action that avoids further escalation in Scarborough Shoal, a firmer response might be necessary to assure the Filipino public and convey a direct warning to Beijing.”