Ukrainian forces fighting in Russia ‘almost surrounded’
LONDON/KYIV—Thousands of Ukrainian troops who stormed into Russia’s Kursk region last summer in a shock incursion are nearly surrounded by Russian forces there, in a major blow to Kyiv which hoped to use its presence there as leverage over Moscow in any peace talks.
Ukraine’s situation in Kursk has deteriorated sharply in the last three days, open source maps show, after Russian forces retook territory as part of a gathering counteroffensive that has nearly cut the Ukrainian force in two and separated the main group from its principal supply lines.
The precarious situation for Ukraine comes after Washington suspended its intelligence sharing with Kyiv and raises the possibility that its forces may be forced into a politically awkward and psychologically difficult retreat back into Ukraine, or risk being captured or killed.
The battlefield reversal comes at a time when Kyiv is under mounting US pressure to agree to a ceasefire with Moscow and as Russian forces continue to advance along parts of the front line inside Ukraine, even as Ukrainian forces stage a fightback in one area.
‘Situation very bad’
“The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad,” Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Reuters.
“Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw. And withdrawal would mean running a dangerous gauntlet, where the forces would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery,” he said.
Yan Matveev, another military analyst, said on Telegram that Ukraine had a difficult choice to make.
“The only argument in favor of holding the bridgehead is political. To use the remnants of the bridgehead for bargaining. And also a little morale—after all, a retreat is a retreat…,” he said.
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk last August was the most serious attack on Russian territory since the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 and was designed to bring the war to ordinary Russians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was also aimed at trying to ease pressure on Ukrainian troops defending their own country and at giving Kyiv a potential bargaining chip in future peace talks.
Deep State
Open source mapping from Deep State, an authoritative Ukrainian military blogging resource, showed on Friday that around three-quarters of the Ukrainian force inside Russia had now been almost completely encircled.
It showed they were joined to the remaining Ukrainian force located closer to the Russian border by a land corridor around 1 kilometer long and less than 500 meters wide at its narrowest point as Russian forces move to cut that off too.
Deep State said late on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced near the nearby settlement of Kuryilovka.
In an update released on Friday it also said that Russian forces were pressuring Ukraine’s positions in the border area with Sumy region as part of the same operation and moving to try to block supplies to Ukrainian forces inside Kursk.
Yuri Podolyaka, an influential Russian war blogger, said, “The Russian Armed Forces have driven a deep wedge (up to 4 km deep) and actually reached the alternative supply route to Sudzha (which Ukrainians were using).”
