US-Iran deal skips thorniest issue: Tehran’s nuclear program
The interim deal between the United States and Iran is supposed to usher in a two-month period that would address the most divisive issue between the longtime adversaries—Tehran’s nuclear program.
Preventing Iran from attaining a nuclear bomb is a key reason that President Donald Trump said he launched the war alongside Israel in February, but the tentative agreement he has trumpeted leaves little runway to negotiate the long-running sticking point. The previous nuclear pact between Iran and world powers, which Trump pulled the United States from in his first term, took many months to negotiate.
Few details have been publicly released about the initial deal, set to be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, but it generally calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global oil shipments, financial incentives for Iran if it meets certain benchmarks, and a 60-day period for talks on ending the country’s nuclear program.
There is deep skepticism among both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, pro-Israel advocates, and Israel itself that the deal is realistic, workable, or would have any effect on nuclear talks.
The Trump administration has maintained its confidence. Vice President JD Vance said much of the technical detail must be negotiated but that the United States must see action for Iran to receive incentives like sanctions relief.
High-level interventions
Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is peaceful.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, took more than 18 months to negotiate, starting with secret talks between US and Iranian officials in Oman at the end of then President Barack Obama’s first term.
They required dozens of direct high-level interventions from Secretary of State John Kerry and Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, not to mention a team of dozens of technical experts traveling to Europe and elsewhere before the conclusion of the negotiations in Vienna, Austria.
Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 before most of its more contentious concessions had come into effect, and there is no indication now that Iran is willing to offer much more.
As unhappy as critics were about the JCPOA—Trump called it the “worst deal ever negotiated,” while all Republicans and a number of prominent Democrats voted against it—all sides acknowledge it took more than 18 months to get to an even imperfect agreement.
Allies, adversaries
Still, the JCPOA “took years to put together. You had allies and even adversaries—China and Russia—around the table, you had the IAEA at the table, the Obama chief negotiator had a Nobel Prize in physics, Ernie Moniz,” Sen. Tim Kaine said. “I don’t know that either Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff have a Nobel Prize. So it’s going to be hard.”
Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner, neither of whom had any prior experience in nuclear negotiations, made numerous but ultimately unsuccessful attempts to reach an agreement under Omani mediation during the first months of Trump’s second term.
Without significant capitulations by Trump up-front, it is hard to imagine that nuclear negotiations with Iran will take only several months.
“A deal is better than more fighting, but the war America and Israel prosecuted against Iran has fallen short of achieving its stated objectives,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “This agreement is mostly about cleaning up an unnecessary mess and putting the best face on it.”
