Visayas power supply tight in ’26
The Visayas grid may face a fragile power supply situation next year, with the Department of Energy (DOE) flagging the possibility of potential yellow alerts amid tight demand-supply conditions and ongoing plant constraints.
Energy Undersecretary Mylene Capongcol said their initial simulations indicate a “potential critical supply situation” in the Visayas, prompting authorities to closely monitor the region’s power balance as early as now.
“There’s a potential critical supply situation in the Visayas. That’s based on the initial simulation of this and demand-supply,” Capongcol said in an interview. “That’s why we’re focusing our efforts to address the potential yellow alerts. Probably just yellow alerts.”
Capongcol clarified that while the risk does not point to widespread outages, the likelihood of yellow alert episodes—issued when supply margins fall below required levels—remains a concern heading into 2026, depending largely on demand growth and available capacity additions.
Yellow alerts
“Based on what I initially saw, there would be some episodes of yellow alerts,” she said.
“But again, it depends on the demand projections and the available capacity—whether there will be additional capacities that can come online, or whether we will be able to address this through demand-side programs,” she added.
The DOE is also closely reviewing the status of generation plants scheduled for maintenance or those that have recently experienced force majeure, as these could tighten supply in the Visayas grid if not properly mitigated.
The DOE’s assessment aligns with earlier projections by the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP), which warned that while the country’s overall power supply outlook for 2026 remains steady, the Visayas grid continues to be the most exposed among the three major grids.
IEMOP vice president for trading operations Isidro Cacho had said Luzon and Mindanao are not expected to encounter supply issues next year based on current conditions, assuming there are no major disruptions.
On the other hand, the Visayas remains vulnerable due to its growing dependence on imported electricity from the two larger grids.
“When it comes to the Visayas, we’re seeing an issue because it has become primarily dependent on Luzon and Mindanao,” Cacho said.
While available capacity within the Visayas is generally adequate and most plant outages are planned, IEMOP noted that this interdependence makes the region highly sensitive to forced outages elsewhere.
