A pointless tit for tat
Optimism has never been in ample supply in negotiations among claimants for a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, but a fresh thorn in Manila and Beijing’s relationship threatens to deplete even that glimmer of hope.
On Jan. 20, China’s new ambassador to Manila, Jing Quan, raised eyebrows when he expressed confidence that the long-delayed COC could finally be concluded, perhaps even within the year.
“Both sides hope to accelerate negotiations on the [COC] in the South China Sea. To this end, consultations are becoming more frequent and more intensive,” Jing said.
The statement was striking not only for its positive tone but its timing, as the Philippines assumed this year the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), placing Manila at the center of the two-decade-old COC talks.
Three days after Jing made the remark, Chinese forces rescued Filipino sailors when a Singapore-flagged cargo ship capsized in the West Philippine Sea, drawing rare praise from Filipinos in a moment that could have created diplomatic momentum for the two countries.
Exposing coercion
Alas, these developments were abruptly overtaken by the escalation of a war of rhetoric between officials from the Philippines and China, narrowing the space for trust and restraint and making President Marcos’ vision of concluding a meaningful and binding COC much more challenging.
On Jan. 26, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said it had made “firm representations” to the Chinese embassy over what it described as troubling public exchanges between Chinese and Filipino officials.
The DFA affirmed its support for the Filipinos “performing their lawful duties in defense of Philippine sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction,” while warning that a lack of circumspection in language and action could “unnecessarily derail the diplomatic space needed to manage the tensions in the maritime domain.”
Such a warning is well-founded.
The dispute began over an image shared online by the outspoken Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela. China accused Tarriela of smearing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s dignity. Tarriela, in response, framed his action as promoting transparency in the West Philippine Sea, which “is not provocation” but a means of exposing coercion.
Soon, lawmakers entered the fray, with Sen. Risa Hontiveros calling the Chinese embassy a “bad guest.” Embassy deputy spokesperson Guo Wei retaliated by saying the senator was doing “political theater” for her own gain.
Historical and legal baggage
The Marcos administration has walked a careful line. Palace Press Officer Claire Castro reiterated the President’s full support for officials defending Philippine sovereignty while stressing that diplomacy remains indispensable in resolving disputes.
As the tumult festered, Sen. Imee Marcos filed a resolution calling for sobriety in public communications. But that didn’t stop Kalayaan town in Palawan from declaring Jing persona non grata over “violations of diplomatic protocols and affront to Philippine officials.”
All this is unfolding months before COC negotiations that on their own already carry immense historical and legal baggage.
The Philippines and China, along with other Asean claimants, agreed as far back as 2002 to adopt a code governing conduct in the South China Sea. But talks that began only in 2018 failed to prevent coercive actions, including China’s seizure of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal in 2012 and repeated confrontations in the West Philippine Sea.
Beijing’s refusal to recognize the 2016 arbitral ruling that affirmed Manila’s sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) remains the bone of contention in COC discussions.
A just and lawful COC
Mr. Marcos has been unequivocal about the Philippines’ red line. “I will not preside over any process that will abandon even a square inch of territory of the Republic of the Philippines to any foreign power,” he said shortly after taking power in 2022.
This is the context in which the Philippines now finds itself thrust into the role of regional mediator, and the stakes are clear: A rushed or diluted code that sidesteps Unclos and ignores the 2016 arbitral ruling would serve the interests of the strongest claimant more than the region as a whole.
As the Asean chair, the Philippines must strike a delicate balance as it serves as a broker with twin obligations to defend the nation’s sovereignty while promoting peace in the region.
Ultimately, the success of Manila’s chairmanship will not be measured by whether a COC is signed by November but by whether it is credible, enforceable and rooted in law.
There was never any doubt that achieving a just and lawful COC would be difficult. Now, as two of the parties engage in a pointless, counterproductive tit for tat, that dream is more elusive than ever–but no less necessary.
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