Asean must hold the line on Myanmar’s junta

Five years after Myanmar’s military coup, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) faces a critical test: whether it will stand with the people of Myanmar, or allow the region’s most brutal military regime to slowly regain political legitimacy. Recent developments make this question increasingly urgent.

Myanmar’s junta is now attempting to install a new administration based on the results of a deeply flawed election while activating military-controlled legislatures across the country. In Chin State, individuals accused of serious abuses against civilians have already been seated in the junta’s newly formed state parliament.

These developments are not signs of political normalization. They are part of a calculated effort to convert a sham election into a claim of constitutional legitimacy. As United Nations special rapporteur Tom Andrews warned clearly, “An illegitimate election will produce an illegitimate result.”

Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing is attempting to project the image of governance while continuing to wage war against his own population. Political parties have been dissolved or excluded, opposition leaders remain imprisoned, and communities across Myanmar continue to face airstrikes and mass displacement. This is not a democratic transition. It is military rule repackaged as civilian administration.

Since Myanmar joined Asean in 1997, the organization has repeatedly struggled with how to respond to the conduct of its most troubled member. Too often the pattern has been familiar: concern, pressure, and eventually reintegration.

That pattern has shaped the expectations of Myanmar’s military leaders today. They believe that no matter how egregious their behavior, Asean will ultimately move on.

This time must be different. The junta is now seeking to translate its staged election into broader regional acceptance. A cabinet will be formed, military-dominated legislatures will be activated, and symbolic gestures may be used to suggest progress, whether through announcements of ceasefire initiatives or limited prisoner releases. These steps are not reforms. They are political theater designed to persuade the region that Myanmar’s crisis has passed.

Asean must resist that narrative. Over the past two years, Asean has taken important steps in the right direction. Indonesia maintained a principled position by denying the junta political legitimacy, while Malaysia strengthened humanitarian engagement and emphasized the need to work with a broader range of Myanmar stakeholders beyond the military authorities. These efforts have helped preserve Asean’s credibility at a moment when the region’s leadership is being closely watched.

Equally important, Asean should avoid any step that could be interpreted as restoring political legitimacy to the junta before meaningful progress is achieved. The current policy of limiting the regime’s participation in high-level Asean meetings has helped preserve pressure for implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. Diluting that position now, without an end to violence or genuine political dialogue, would send precisely the wrong signal.

As Asean leaders prepare for upcoming regional meetings, the organization must remain firm on three priorities: a genuine cessation of violence against civilians, humanitarian assistance that reaches communities directly without military control, and political space for dialogue among Myanmar’s legitimate stakeholders, including democratic actors, ethnic organizations, and civil society.

The military regime cannot be the sole interlocutor for Myanmar’s future, much less be treated as part of the solution, when it is itself the source of the crisis.

ASEAN leaders often say that solutions must be “Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned.” If that principle is to mean anything, it cannot mean recognizing an administration manufactured through repression and exclusion.

Millions of people across Myanmar have risked everything to resist military rule. Their aspirations, not the ambitions of one general, must guide Asean’s response. Reopening Asean’s political platforms to the junta would not bring stability to Myanmar. It would only embolden a regime that has repeatedly shown contempt for both its own people and the commitments it made to the region.

Asean must hold the line. The credibility of the Five-Point Consensus, and the credibility of Asean itself, depends on it.

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Salai Za Uk Ling is executive director of the Chin Human Rights Organization, a nongovernmental organization established in 1995 to protect civilians, document atrocity crimes, and advance justice for the Chin people and other ethnic communities in Myanmar. He has a pending war crimes complaint against top officials of the Myanmar junta before the Philippine Department of Justice under the international humanitarian law.