Battle of impeachments

These are unprecedented times. The two highest officials of our land are facing impeachment complaints at the same time. Both President Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte face two impeachment complaints each, filed in the House of Representatives. What maneuverings, compromises, enticements, promises, pressures, and machinations will be employed by either official to defeat the complaints against each of them, and push for the triumph of the complaints against the other?

The first impeachment complaint against the President was filed by lawyer Andre de Jesus, accusing Mr. Marcos of ordering and enabling the kidnapping of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte and his surrender to the International Criminal Court; being a drug addict whose condition impairs his judgment; and failing to veto unconstitutional provisions of the national budget from 2023 to 2026.

The second complaint against Mr. Marcos was filed by the Makabayan bloc led by ACT Teachers party list Rep. Antonio Tinio, Kabataan party list Rep. Renee Co, and Gabriela party list Rep. Sarah Elago. They accuse the President of institutionalizing systemic corruption and patronage, which allegedly led to “ghost,” substandard, and overpriced flood management projects; abuse of discretionary power over unprogrammed appropriations; and direct personal involvement in kickback schemes.

On the other hand, the first impeachment complaint against VP Sara was also filed by militant groups led by Makabayan lawmakers Tinio, Co, and Elago. This first complaint accuses VP Sara of committing “gross abuse of discretionary powers” over the P612.5 million confidential funds of the Office of the Vice President and the Department of Education from 2022 to 2023. Of the amount, P125 million was alleged to have been spent by VP Sara in merely 11 days in 2022, with largely no documentation, fabricated liquidation reports, and fictitious recipients (like “Mary Grace Piattos”), among others.

The second complaint against VP Sara was filed by civil society leaders led by Tindig Pilipinas convenor and former President Cory Aquino’s grandson, Francis “Kiko” Aquino Dee, and endorsed by Mamamayang Liberal party list Rep. Leila de Lima and Akbayan party list Rep. Perci Cendaña. This second complaint accuses VP Sara of constitutional violations, graft and corruption, bribery and accumulated unexplained wealth, gross incompetence, abuse of power, that she tolerated extrajudicial killings, and that she participated in efforts to destabilize the government.

The four impeachment complaints are now up for deliberations in the lower House. (The House justice committee declared the two impeachment complaints against President Marcos insufficient in substance on Wednesday afternoon. —Ed.). This gives congresspersons huge leverage to demand pork barrel allocations from Malacañang. For sure, they will get juicy allocations in exchange for the dismissal of the complaints against Mr. Marcos and the approval of the complaints against VP Sara. Like last year, VP Sara’s impeachment will need the two-thirds vote of the House, which will then trigger the automatic transmittal of the complaints to the Senate for an impeachment trial. This is not to say that the complaints against VP Sara are without basis. On the contrary, there are really strong grounds to cause her impeachment, but many lawmakers will look and decide on the basis of “what’s in it for me?” That’s the reality of transactional politics in our country.

In the Senate, it gets tricky because the two-thirds vote (16 senators) required to impeach VP Sara will be difficult to obtain because of interest-driven loyalties. There are nine senators who are widely seen as part of the Duterte bloc, and they are expected to vote against the complaint against VP Sara, regardless of how meritorious the grounds of impeachment are, if no pressure or intervention is applied to them. These Duterte-allied senators are Imee Marcos, Christopher “Bong” Go, Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, Robinhood Padilla, Rodante Marcoleta, Jinggoy Estrada, Francis “Chiz” Escudero, Joel Villanueva, and Alan Peter Cayetano.

However, the Marcos administration has strong leverage over several of these senators to influence their votes. They are Escudero, Villanueva, and Estrada, who are all at risk of being charged with nonbailable criminal charges because of their alleged involvement in the flood control mess. It will be in the realm of politics for the ruling administration to withhold criminal charges against just two of these three senators in exchange for their votes, and the required 16 votes to successfully impeach VP Sara can be obtained. The ruling government can leave one senator as a sacrificial lamb to satisfy the angry public’s strong clamor for a sitting senator to be charged and jailed. Who among the three will be the sacrificial lamb? As to the other senators, other pressure points or enticements of privileges are within the arsenal of weapons of the ruling administration.

The public will be confronted with two choices. The public can allow the Duterte-allied senators to misuse their votes by defeating the impeachment complaints against VP Sara, notwithstanding strong evidence. Or the public will accept the Marcos administration’s resort to arm-twisting to make senators vote in favor of impeaching VP Sara, regardless of the merits of the charges.